Wednesday, 21 March 2018

8:45 Chelmsford Racing Tips (22nd March)

Racing Tips
5 of the 8 have led before and my top 2 are possible pacemakers, if they do go off too fast then Just Us Two could be the 1 to take advantage being my 3rd top rating, Red Stripes is 2nd top rated but top spot belongs to MONUMENTAL MAN 14/1 who isn't badly drawn in stall 3 and the jockey has a good 18% win rate for this stable which I hope is a good pointer to it running a good race, so I hope they all run and there's 3 places up for grabs as its a big enough price to go with an each way bet.

Monumental Man 14/1 6th

Tuesday, 20 March 2018

8:45 Kempton Racing Tips (21st March)

This is a very strange race where I can split the 12 runners into 2 groups of 6, those that have no chance and those that could win, those on the positive side are the top 4 in the handicap and numbers 8 and 9. There's no known front runners in the race which makes analysis almost impossible in most races and i wont be betting big if at all in this race, the one I tipped up at 100/1 when it won runs again here and could follow up but it was a slow run race, there's only 1 horse that's done a recorded time in 2017 and this year is Nags Wag 16/1 so it has to be the selection mainly because i think its overpriced so an each way bet may pay dividends.

NR: Nags Wag

Sunday, 11 March 2018

8:15 Chelmsford Racing Tips (12th March)

Speculative bet
CHELMSFORD 8.15 Div 1 

This looks a strange race with no natural front runners in the race but MONARCH MAID 12/1 is a versatile sort and that does include leading and if it adopts those tactics here it could be allowed to set its own pace and then being my 2nd top rated it could prove hard to catch and the trainer has a 2-5 record at this track and that's why i think it will try to lead all the way and only TASAABOQ 16/1 has done a better time but this ones jockey is only 1-74 for this stable and the trainer only has a 7% win rate at this course but it could buck the trend, I will go with backing them both each way to cover both angles but my stakes will be kept on the low side.

Monarch Maid 12/1 3rd
NR: Tasaaboq 

Friday, 16 February 2018

8:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (16th February)

Qatar Racing Ltd
1m (1m5y) Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 5) (3yo)

Six runners on Standard going. 

Velvet Vision is unlikely to disrupt the major contenders. Mark Tompkin's debutantes can spring a surprise but rarely. 

Hugo Palmer is a top-class trainer for a reason and someone to respect with three-year-olds on their second start. Evince is a daughter of New Approach, a home bred in the ownership of Prince K Abdullah. She ran here on debut but inexperience and insufficient trip caused problems after a slow start. Better should be expect.  

Chloris has shown creditable form, especially last time out when third. 

The familiar silks of Qatar Racing Limited catch the eye for debutante Imperial Act. Interesting to see why the hood is applied for this racecourse bow. It may be a slight negative suggesting a horse that needs calming or lacks focus. The trainer knows best and the betting is the best assessor. This daughter of Frankel was sent to the sales earlier this month but withdrawn. Difficult to know if this is a negative. It does bring concerns. The dam won twice and achieved an official rating of 100. Potentially a smart type but there are questions to answer. If seriously backed it would instill more confidence. 

Another owner who has done well last season was John Dance. He is particularly potent when partnering Karl Burke. For that reason, Lumi is worthy of note. This bay daughter of Canford Cliffs cost 80,000 euros at the yearling sales. She wasn't strongly fancied on debut at Newcastle over 7f but ran well, staying on at the finishing, gaining on the lead. This extra furlong should be ideal and I'd expect a bold show. Looks a decent type to put in an each-way double or single if drifting a touch in the betting.

David Simcock fields Skirrid Hill who looks to be second string to Imperial Act.

Conclusion: An interesting race in ways. By all accounts a four-horse race. I'm interested in Lumi but I really wouldn't bet in this competitive heat with just two places for each-way backers. Fascinating to see how Imperial Act fares in the betting with a few ifs and buts flying around. 

Wednesday, 14 February 2018

What is Speculative Bet?

Fed up with betting the favourite every race? Sometimes you need to look a little deeper and find a bet - with a fighting chance - that is a bigger if not huge price. Speculative Bet hasn't been going long but we have achieved some remarkable results proving why is really pays to follow these selective tips. It's fair to say that we won't have selections every day but make sure you take a look at Speculative Bet because our information speaks for itself.

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Cheltenham Festival 2018 Results

Cheltenhan Festival 2018 Results
Location: Cheltenham Festival, Prestbury Park, Gloucester, England.

Date: 13th - 16th March 2018.

Introduction: The Cheltenham Festival is the pinnacle of National Hunt horse racing. High profile horses, trainers, jockeys, owners & gamblers. All with one thing in mind – finding winners. The best British and Irish-trained horses looking for bragging rights. Keep up to date, click here to see all Cheltenham Festival result.

Take a look at these headline Grade 1 races & tips:

Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
3:30 Cheltenham 13th March

This could be the start of a supreme Cheltenham Festival for Nicky Henderson with 4/7f Buveur D'Air - a banker for many a punter on this first day. This French-bred seven-year-old gelding is unbeaten in his last nine starts and has an official rating of 169. Winning this race last year, drawing clear from stable mate My Tent Or Yours. The betting suggests the majority of this field are here to make up the numbers bar one Irish opponent trained by Willie Mullins, Faugheen. This 6/1 shot won the Champion Hurdle in 2015. A disappointment when pulled up at Leopardstown suggests this gelding has a question to answer but the ability to go very well if at his best.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase
3:30 Cheltenham - 14th March

Altior could be another smart winner for Nicky Henderson. This gelding has run 15 times and tasted defeated on just two occasions. A son of High Chaparral with total prize earnings of almost £400,000. William Hill have this eight year old priced 8/11f. He won at odds of 1/3f when ''comfortably'' defying all at Newbury in February. Willie Mullins isn't going to let Henderson has this all his own way because Min and Douvan could well figure. They are priced 10/3 & 5/1, respectively. Fox Norton may be some people's idea of an each-way bet at 12/1. Altior is a hot favourite for big players.

Cheltenham Gold Cup
3:30 Cheltenham 16th March

Could this be three out of three for Nicky Henderson? Those Irish eyes will be weeping if Might Bite takes the Gold Cup. This nine-year-old bay gelding is sired by Scorpion out of a dam called Knotted Midge. Not doubt the mare inspired the ownership moniker The Knot Again Partnership. Might Bite has been transformed over the last couple of seasons. Stealing a win at Cheltenham when taking the RSA Novices Chase last year in the final strides. He has sparkled since stepping up to 3 miles. William Hill have this horse priced 3/1. Other major hopes include last year's winner Sizing John. That victory speaks volumes and I would be very fearful of this gelding even though his last run afforded a bizarre conclusion. Native River hit the frame last year and been in good form heading towards this contest.

Conclusion: Three showcase races for the Festival. Nicky Henderson must be heading to Prestbury Park full of hope. Buveur D'Air, Altior & Might Bite could well start favourites across the board. The first horse looks set to win and it could well bring a touch of luck to his stable mates who I fancy to taste victory. 

Sunday, 2 April 2017

Grand National 2017: Betting on the Favourite

Many Clouds - Grand National Winner
The 8th April 2017. Pencil (5:15 Aintree) on your calendar. Get ready for the most spectacular steeplechase in the world. I wonder which horse you fancy to win this year's Grand National.

Are you ready to bet?

Perhaps you have your eye on the favourite. Take a look at the complete guide to the Grand National horse racing festival

This famous National Hunt race was inaugurated in 1839 when a horse named Lottery won at 5/1f. Horses race over 4 miles and 514 yards, two gruelling circuits, 30 fences. It's a tough, hard-as-nails race, for horse and jockey.

If you ask someone to name a horse race they would probably say the Grand National. If I asked you to name a winner of this prestigious race what would you say?

Red Rum, Aldaniti, Foinavon...

Outstanding horses have won the Grand National. At times it hasn't been the best horse in the field. A little bit of luck can go a long way in a race of changing fortunes.

Which horse has the best chance of winning? It must be the favourite!

Did you know that the shortest priced winner of the Grand National came in 1919 when Poethlyn won at 11/4f?

Many punters love to bet favourites. In fact, the vast majority of the money bet on every race goes on the first and second favourite. How do the favourites go in the Grand National?

Let's take a look at the results since 1994. How many favourites have won?

Just 5, and two of those were joint favourites.

  • 1996 – Rough Quest 7/1
  • 1998 – Earth Summit 7/1
  • 2005 – Hedgehunter 7/1
  • 2008 – Comply Or Die 7/1JF
  • 2010 – Don't Push It 10/1JF

It's startling to consider the previous winning favourite came in 1982 when Grittar prevailed for trainer Frank Gilman.

The winning favourite before this was the imperious Red Rum in 1973, his first Grand National victory for the legendary trainer Ginger McCain.

Previous to that, Merryman II won for Neville Crump. Can you guess the year?


Just eight favourites have won since 1959.

Perhaps it's time to reconsider betting on the favourite. Five horses have confounded the bookies winning at odds of 100-1. The last being Mon Mome in 2009.

In fact, the last six years has seen winners returned at big odds.

  • 2011 – Ballabriggs 14/1
  • 2012 – Neptune Collonges 33/1
  • 2013 – Auroras Encore 66/1
  • 2014 – Pineau De Re 25/1
  • 2015 – Many Clouds 25/1
  • 2016 – Rule The World 33/1

Is it any wonder bookmakers don't mind you betting on the favourite?

In the last 70-years, just nine favourites or joint-favourites have won. Worse still, 37 have failed to complete the course.

The Grand National has £1000,000 in total prize money, while the winner picks up £561,300.

There is a lot at stake.

This most famous steeplechase turns horses into legends. The three-times winner Red Rum (1973, 1974 & 1977) passed away in 1995 but his memory, victory, the story will live long in the hearts of all who love their racing.

Time will tell who wins this year.

I wonder if it will be the favourite.

Saturday, 1 April 2017

4:45 Doncaster Racing Tips (1st April) Brocklesby Conditions Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Div II) (Class 4) (2yo)

Bill Turner, Brocklesby Stkes
The Brocklesby Conditions Stakes over 5f. The going at the time of writing is good to soft. Division II of this first two-year-old race of the season. The first division and second division have 11 juveniles entered from a first declaration stage of 28. Sadly, Mark Johnston's entry has been withdrawn. 

Considering he won this race in the last two years his colt would most likely have been favourite. 

On first impressions, this looks the stronger of the two division. A number of trainers had two or three horses earmarked for this race so it is a puzzle to work out who may be favoured. 

The betting is key for this race. 

Interesting to see Bill Turner fields one of three fillies to make their debut here. Hellovaqueen is a homebred daughter of Hellvelyn who shone many moons ago for Bryan Smart. This grey filly will not be two until 15th April. Turner has a fine strike rate in this contest over the years with six victories. Probably the best of those was seen in 2002 The Lord. 

Turner has been quoted as saying that winning the Brocklesby has been increasingly difficult over recent years. His last winner came in 2013 Mick's Yer Man. By all accounts, Hellovaqueen has been showing up well on the gallops but one of a handful of juveniles in training at Sigwells, Somerset. In fact, Turner suggests when quoted by ATR that he wasn't sure if she would make the race. At present, she is declared to race so it would seem likely. 

Homebreds are often a little slower to come to hand, which may be a slight concern. With this handlers reputation,  there is also a fear that she may be under priced. However, if past performances are anything to be judged it would be a brave man to say victory won't come the way of owner Mrs A F Horsington. Turner's grandson, Ryan While claims a handy 5lb allowance from a decent draw. On balance, I would take a watching brief simply because this last few runners have been slightly disappointing. Certainly, last year's runner, Crucial Moment, was poor. 

The major contenders:

Interested in Clive Cox's Move To The Front. The stable can ready a debutante and a high draw is an advantage if getting to the rail. This son of Lord Shanakil is owned by Paul & Clare Rooney although a cheap yearling purchase at just £10,000. That price tag is a slight concern especially if there is an expensive horse or two in opposition. 

Richard Fahey's Requinto Dawn cost just 7,000E as a foal. 

Interesting to note that we have one horse with racecourse experience. Jurisprudance is a daughter of Panis, trained by George Baker. She was 11-1 on debut at Saint-Cloud, France when running on well after a slow start. That experience will be a big advantage although a wide draw in stall two. It could be worse if she was drawn on the extreme birth. 

Conclusion: Move To The Front wasn't an expensive purchase but if fancied in the betting could go well. Hellovaqueen hails from a stable who know how to win this race more than any trainer in the history of the Brocklesby. It is sad to hear that Turner's string of two-year-olds is weaker in numbers if not ability. The number of juveniles in any trainer's string correlates to potential stars. On balance, I would have to take a watching brief but always a fan of Turner I will be cheering his filly to win. Racecourse experience is a huge advantage at this time of year, especially so when all opponents are unraced. Many of these juveniles will be clueless. Jurispruance ran well in Saint-Cloud and will appreciate this extra half furlong. This filly would have gone close to winning on debut if not for a slow start and should go well. It is always wise in these first few weeks of the juvenile season to let the form settle. It is the major guide to finding a winning level of ability. Place efforts can sometimes be misleading and the reason why it pays to be very careful. Interesting race.         

Monday, 6 February 2017

12:45 Newcastle Racing Tips (29th Aug) VERTEM.CO.UK/EBF IRISH STALLION FARMS MAIDEN STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Stakes over  7f 14y on standard going. A sizable field of fourteen two-year-old for the Plus 10 contest. 

A slightly unusual selection here with a debutante from Jedd O'Keeffe. To be fair this is a conflict of interests because generally speaking this handler has very few debut winners so unless this colt is above the norm he may struggle to prove victorious but, perhaps, hit the frame. Any horse can defy the odds. Balance Sheet is a chestnut son of Casamento, already gelded, which may be negative. This April foal runs in the familiar orange silks of Paul & Dale Chapman Racing. He was withdrawn from the sales as a yearling but sold as a foal for 52,000G. That is a fair sum for a horse and it is interesting to consider that this youngster received a Stakes race entry, which I would view as a positive sign. At odds of 28/1 with bookmakers and, no doubt, substantially more on the exchanges he may hold a bit of value. It is a concern that the stable have such a more win rate with horses making their racecourse bow but that doesn't mean he cannot show ability or have an each-way chance. I wouldn't say I would be sure he will hit the headlines today but at big odds there may be some hope. 


Wednesday, 16 November 2016

7 Things to consider when backing a horse

Horse racing is one of the most popular betting sports in the world. Like most sports, there are people who can make thousands from horse betting. However the majority of horse punters tend to be casual and usually place bets based on their lucky number or the name of the horse. By following the following seven tips and factors, you can make a calculated guess on which horse to place a bet on.


Betting websites, such as Paddy Power, show the breeding pedigree for each horse that is competing in a race. Most race-horses are now bred with selected horse types to ‘create’ the ideal race-horse. Be careful which type of horse you are betting on though, as different pedigree horses are suited to different tracks. If you do find that the track type is very suitable for the horse that is racing, then waste no time and place a bet on the horse.


The outcome of a race can also depend on the trainer of the horse. Horses that are trained by the same trainers may perform better on different types of surfaces e.g. better performances on a soft surface track. In some situations there may not be a noticeable difference of the horses’ performance on different track surfaces. However, if you do spot that horses trained by certain trainers perform significantly better on certain tracks, then chances are the horse racing will also perform well and have a good chance of winning the race.


Although jockeys race on multiple tracks throughout their career, certain tracks can be stomping grounds for certain jockeys and may have experienced success multiple times on the same track. The chances of a jockey repeating their success on the same track a high considering they have the experience of racing on the track, and have the knowledge of how the track ‘plays out’. But like the other factors, choosing a winner based on the knowledge of the track isn’t enough. Other factors such as the type of horse being used will affect the outcome of a race. You can’t expect an experienced jockey to repeat their success using the slowest horse of the race.


Like every athlete, horses need time to recover from a previous race. A horse that is racing just a few days after their previous race may suffer in the next race when facing against horses that have had a few more days or weeks rest and are fully refreshed. Although a few days extra rest may give a horse an edge, make sure they are not out of action for too long. If a horse has competed in a race for a long period, e.g. a few months, then they will suffer due to lack of ‘race fitness’, which means they are also unlikely to win the race. Your best bet is to put a bet on a horse that has not raced in a few days, but is still fit enough to run the full race without any issues.


It is common in horse racing for horses to drop down classes if they are unable to compete at a higher level. When you are placing a bet on a race, keep an eye out for horses that have dropped down a couple of levels. Although previously being part of a higher class does not guarantee a win, the experience of racing at a higher level should give the horse a slight edge other their competitors.


Horses can be imported in from far and wide in order to participate in a certain race. If you notice that a horse has been brought in from far away to participate in a single race, chances are the trainer or jockey believes that the horse has a very good chance of winning the race. However be careful. Horses that have travelled a long distance are at risk from suffering from fatigue due to the distance travelled. This could lead to the horse performing worse in the race than anticipated.


You should never underestimate momentum. A jockey that is on a winning streak is far more likely to carry on their momentum and extend their streak than a jockey who hasn’t won a race in a while. Although it is entirely plausible for a jockey on a winless streak to break it, the hot streak jockey should still be favourite to win. But as mentioned earlier, you should not just use winning streaks as your only metric for picking a winner. In this example, a course specialist that is on a losing streak has the potential to come away with the win over a jockey on a winning streak.