12:45 Newcastle Racing Tips (29th Aug) VERTEM.CO.UK/EBF IRISH STALLION FARMS MAIDEN STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Stakes over  7f 14y on standard going. A sizable field of fourteen two-year-old for the Plus 10 contest. 

A slightly unusual selection here with a debutante from Jedd O'Keeffe. To be fair this is a conflict of interests because generally speaking this handler has very few debut winners so unless this colt is above the norm he may struggle to prove victorious but, perhaps, hit the frame. Any horse can defy the odds. Balance Sheet is a chestnut son of Casamento, already gelded, which may be negative. This April foal runs in the familiar orange silks of Paul & Dale Chapman Racing. He was withdrawn from the sales as a yearling but sold as a foal for 52,000G. That is a fair sum for a horse and it is interesting to consider that this youngster received a Stakes race entry, which I would view as a positive sign. At odds of 28/1 with bookmakers and, no doubt, substantially more on the exchanges he may hold a bit of value. It is a concern that the stable have such a more win rate with horses making their racecourse bow but that doesn't mean he cannot show ability or have an each-way chance. I wouldn't say I would be sure he will hit the headlines today but at big odds there may be some hope. 


7 Things to consider when backing a horse

Horse racing is one of the most popular betting sports in the world. Like most sports, there are people who can make thousands from horse betting. However the majority of horse punters tend to be casual and usually place bets based on their lucky number or the name of the horse. By following the following seven tips and factors, you can make a calculated guess on which horse to place a bet on.


Betting websites, such as Paddy Power, show the breeding pedigree for each horse that is competing in a race. Most race-horses are now bred with selected horse types to ‘create’ the ideal race-horse. Be careful which type of horse you are betting on though, as different pedigree horses are suited to different tracks. If you do find that the track type is very suitable for the horse that is racing, then waste no time and place a bet on the horse.


The outcome of a race can also depend on the trainer of the horse. Horses that are trained by the same trainers may perform better on different types of surfaces e.g. better performances on a soft surface track. In some situations there may not be a noticeable difference of the horses’ performance on different track surfaces. However, if you do spot that horses trained by certain trainers perform significantly better on certain tracks, then chances are the horse racing will also perform well and have a good chance of winning the race.


Although jockeys race on multiple tracks throughout their career, certain tracks can be stomping grounds for certain jockeys and may have experienced success multiple times on the same track. The chances of a jockey repeating their success on the same track a high considering they have the experience of racing on the track, and have the knowledge of how the track ‘plays out’. But like the other factors, choosing a winner based on the knowledge of the track isn’t enough. Other factors such as the type of horse being used will affect the outcome of a race. You can’t expect an experienced jockey to repeat their success using the slowest horse of the race.


Like every athlete, horses need time to recover from a previous race. A horse that is racing just a few days after their previous race may suffer in the next race when facing against horses that have had a few more days or weeks rest and are fully refreshed. Although a few days extra rest may give a horse an edge, make sure they are not out of action for too long. If a horse has competed in a race for a long period, e.g. a few months, then they will suffer due to lack of ‘race fitness’, which means they are also unlikely to win the race. Your best bet is to put a bet on a horse that has not raced in a few days, but is still fit enough to run the full race without any issues.


It is common in horse racing for horses to drop down classes if they are unable to compete at a higher level. When you are placing a bet on a race, keep an eye out for horses that have dropped down a couple of levels. Although previously being part of a higher class does not guarantee a win, the experience of racing at a higher level should give the horse a slight edge other their competitors.


Horses can be imported in from far and wide in order to participate in a certain race. If you notice that a horse has been brought in from far away to participate in a single race, chances are the trainer or jockey believes that the horse has a very good chance of winning the race. However be careful. Horses that have travelled a long distance are at risk from suffering from fatigue due to the distance travelled. This could lead to the horse performing worse in the race than anticipated.


You should never underestimate momentum. A jockey that is on a winning streak is far more likely to carry on their momentum and extend their streak than a jockey who hasn’t won a race in a while. Although it is entirely plausible for a jockey on a winless streak to break it, the hot streak jockey should still be favourite to win. But as mentioned earlier, you should not just use winning streaks as your only metric for picking a winner. In this example, a course specialist that is on a losing streak has the potential to come away with the win over a jockey on a winning streak.

2:30 Brighton Racing Tips (5th Sept) BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f 209y on good going. A powerhouse of a trainer who has shown the oldtimers a thing or two. It has to be Hugo Palmer. Most of his talented two-year-olds win in their first couple of starts but Colibri has bucked that trend. It wasn't for lack of try because this bay colt is actually held in some regard by connections. This bay colt is a son of Redoute's Choice in the familiar silks of  Al Asayl Bloodstock Ltd started hs career in a hot Goodwood maiden. Considering the win prize money was over £16,000 it told the calibre of that event. The starting price of 14-1 showed that connections were more hopeful than certain. He dwelt and suffered trouble in running so it was no bad performance to finish mid-division beaten just over six lengths from a quality horse in Lockheed. He was similarly double-figure odds when racing at the same distance at Newbury. To be beaten by just over a couple of lengths from ready winner Ultimate Avenue was a fair effort. This looks a very winnable race and I suspect Colibri will lead and take some catching.    

4:40 Lingfield (31st Aug) Speculative Bet OILFIELD INSURANCE AGENCIES MAIDEN AUCTION FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

A Maiden Auction Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10) over 7f on good to firm going. 

Eleven runners but just one big priced selection to feast our eyes. As we know, these tips can be rather hit and miss but that is the nature of the beautiful beast when you start poking a 20/1 shot with a sharp stick (to make it go faster!). 

So which filly do we have our beady eye on here? Joyful Dream may just have an ace up her hoof at big odds. This is a very restricted race type and this chestnut daughter of Dream Ahead is out of a poor mare but I have a sneaky feeling Stan Moore considers this 9,000E breeze-up buy to have a glimmer of ability. Moore is a canny old stick and not the kind of trainer to overrate his juveniles but it is interesting to consider he once had this February foal entered to run at Listed class. Clearly, she isn't to that level unless something quite astounding has happened like someone had put her shoes on back to front! But it does suggest to me that we may not have seen the potential of this little horse. She ran a cracking race on debut at odds of 100/1. I actually tipped her on this website and although finishing eighth was beaten less than three lengths. She was more fancied next start at Chepstow in a race which turned out to be very competitive for the auction class. It is intriguing that Moore sent her to run at Deauville, France last time out when finishing down the field in testing conditions. I can't imagine Moore sending her to glimpse the Eiffel Tower or nibble at frog legs. I think it was a sign, added to the other clues, that he fancies this juvenile can win a small race.     

This faster ground should be more suiting and a step up in distance could be in her favour.  With ace apprentice Josephine Gordon claiming a valuable three pound and just 8-3 on her back I get the feeling if Joyful Dream is going to hit the frame this could well be her day. At odds of 25/1+ I would give this juvenile each-way claims. 

2:40 Chelmsford (21st Aug) TOTEEXACTA MAIDEN STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

A Maiden Stakes over 7f on standard going.

Nine two-year-olds take part. 

Accento will start hot favourite here after finishing fourth on debut at Doncaster over 7f. This bay colt is a son of Elusive Quality and a homebred from Al Asayl Bloodstock Ltd. He was outpointed by the talented juvenile Sam Harry in a race where the form has been franked. This Hugo Palmer-trained two-year-old was probably expected to win on debut and a month on the sidelines should see a bold second start. It is a sign of confidence that he was entered for the Convivial Stakes, just one of two for the stable, but the highly reputed Via Serendipity was given the green light in favour and finished a creditable third. Accento isn't much of a price and probably not one of the better juveniles in the stable but will go well today.

Simon Crisford has done remarkably well since starting his training career in 2015. He can prime a horse to win on debut and Ningaloo is fancied in the betting. This January foal is a son of French sire Siyouni out of an unraced mare. This colt cost 280,000G at the yearling sales when purchased by Crisford Racing. Difficult to assess this juvenile which doesn't have any lofty entries, although that doesn't mean it doesn't have the ability to go well. The betting is key. If starting favourite it would be a confident sign. However, if second best in the market it may just be the tag that the Accento will take some beating. Still a major threat.

Qatar Man shouldn't be discounted. This American-bred son of Archarcharch is owned and bred by Mubarak Al Naemi. This horse is held in some regard and if priced 10/1 & less would have fair each-way claims.

Paul Cole isn't the powerhouse he once was with fewer numbers in his string but make no mistake he know a winner. Tuscany is owned by Mrs Fitri Hay and a relatively cheap purchase at 35,000G. This son of Poet's Voice is ridden by Martin Harley. The betting is key here. If priced 8/1 & less SP would have respectable win and place claims. If outside this betting guide, I would take a watching brief.

Conclusion: A few juveniles here which are held in regard by their trainers. Accento has valuable experience which counts for a lot although over seven furlongs there is often enough time for a true talent to shine. Accento will take some beating but I wouldn't bet at even money or odds on simply there are horses in opposition. Qatar Man has the ability and may be a live danger while Ningaloo is short in the betting. If either is seriously backed I would fear them. It may be the case Qatar Man makes a fair each-way bet if 10/1 & less. I would take a watching brief if Qatar Man and Tuscany are priced outside this betting guide, which would suggest this isn't going to be their day.   


An EBF Maiden Stakes over 7f  on good to firm going.

Win prize money of £37,000 with the potential of a £10,000 bonus. No wonder this is a race which brings out some of the best maidens from the most illustrious trainers. A few of these will be contesting pattern race class in their next starts. Fourteen juveniles and most the apple of their trainer's eye. A race with plenty of future winners.

I will try to keep this brief as I am rushing about like a headless chicken. 

Black Trilby ran a cracking race at Goodwood and this horse has proven ability. Must have fair each-way claims at 15/2. 

Rivet is held in high regard by William Haggas and ran well on debut at Ascot over 6f. This step up in distance will be a plus and I'd expect a very big run.

Hugo Palmer has Via Serendipity at the top of his two-year-old list and the stable has been waiting for this race. This son of Invincible Spirit was purchased at the breeze-up sales for 320,000G. Pat Smullen is booked to ride which adds to the thoughts they mean business and owner V I Araci sent out a class juvenile in Koropick to slaughter the opposition at Thirsk. From what I understand, this bay colt is better. The problem? He may well have to be better because this is one hot maiden. No doubt Via Serendipity will be fit and ready to go well but it will take a mighty effort for a debutante to win. However, even with those concerns, I will be expecting a bold show. Fascinating horse. Win or lose make sure you follow this juvenile because if he doesn't win this season I'll be astonished.

Charlie Appleby had two horses entered for this at the first declaration stage. the other being Deningy, who takes his chance at 3:30 Sandown. Capezzano wouldn't head here in favour of that gelding for no reason and without a doubt, has ample ability. The stable's juvenile can go well on the racecourse bow and one to respect although I do feel those with experience will most likely hold the aces.

Conclusion: A fascinating race. I am very excited about this contest and all of the horses noted. Black Trilby impressed at Goodwood and I can see him having sterling each-way claims. Rivet will be thereabout. Definitely a tough nut to crack. Very excited by the potential of Via Serendipity. This breeze-up buy has real ability. Can he win on debut? If he does, he will be very smart and heading for Group 1 level. Capezzano is held in high regard although I do feel that originally Deningy was the first choice but for whatever reason plans have changed. Which horse to bet? Black Trilby would be my safest option with some value at those odds. However, this can be a tricky race and a big field can bring added problems. Via Serendipity has been a horse I have been waiting to run but I do think this is a test for a debutante.  

6:40 Kempton Racing Tips (17th Aug) 32RED CASINO MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 7f on standard going.

This looks a hot race for its grade with a number of two-year-olds who have proven ability while others shown promise.

Highland Lotus has gone well on her last two starts. This daughter of Foxwedge gets in here on a handy weight. A low draw is a positive and a likely to lead.

Magical Forest has been very consistent this term in four starts and beaten by a few talents. Marco Botti's charge has the blinkers applied for the first time to find that little extra. A fair level and will test most.

Daniel Kubler doesn't have many two-year-olds in his string and Bubble Bath ran well on debut at Kempton and will enjoy this extra furlong after battling to the line last time out and ran well. 

Both Tonahutu and Sir Dancealot have been backed and sit within their best betting guides which give fair each-way claims. 

One horse which could go well is Robyn Brisland's Masonic. Taking over from Nick Littmoden, owners, Franconson Partnership, do well with their purchases and this bay colt is an attractive son of Intense Focus. I saw him in the flesh at Yarmouth and a nice stamp of a horse. There was money for this juvenile that day and run well to finish second behind Chris Wall's Marilyn who could well be heading for greater things. This 4,500G yearling looks a bargain buy of some note and a recent entry for the Solario Stakes Group 3 give some confidence. The form of that debut has been franked by the third coming out and winning since. At odds of 10-1 there could be a little meat on the bone and hold each-way claims. 

Conclusion: Masonic is of interest at fair odds but this looks a stiff race for the grade with five or six two-year-olds heading to Kempton Park with plans to win. A wide draw is a slight negative for Brisland's charge but I can see this colt being competitive. Highland Lotus, Magical Forest, Tonahutu and Sir Dancealot look live dangers and that competitiveness does slightly temper enthusiasm. 

2:00 Chelmsford (15th Aug) Robyn Brisland Hopeful About Queensbrydge at Chelmsford

A Maiden Fillies Stakes (Plus 10) over 6f on standard going. 

We are in search of value and we may have a filly worthy of an interest. This looks an open race with a few individuals who have something to prove and that may open the door for Robyn Brisland's juvenile. 

Queensbrydge is a chestnut filly by Dutch Art out of a four-time winning mare who won at Listed class and raced at Group level. This 46,000G [not sold] as a foal is in the ownership of Franconson Partners. 

Queensbrydge may have surprised punters on debut but I would consider those 33-1 odds were as much to do with an unfashionable but talented trainer. She finished third on debut when running over 6f behind Rajar, who has proved a sensation, and no doubt surprised her stable along the way. To be fair the winner won well but the second and fourth have proven to have ability. 

There is always a slight concern a horse may be flattered but I would give this April foal the benefit of the doubt. 

She was very weak in the betting on her second start at Windsor over 6f but I suspect that was much to do with a wide draw which makes life hard on a dog-leg bend. Drifting from 5-1 - 9-1 is a marked weakness in anyone's book and there could be all manner of reasons. Queensbrydge pressed on from that extreme berth and tried to get to the rail and failed. That may be the reason for a below par effort and viable excuse. Many horses who try to get to the rail pay for it in the closing stages. That may have been good reason for a poor effort and hope that better will be seen today.  A low draw is a positive on this turning course and valuable experience. 

At odds of 25/1 this youngster may hold each-way claims. 


An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes race over 6f 8y on good to firm going. 

Speculative bet is all about the search for value and finding big prices winners. To be fair, at huge odds a placed effort makes for a superb day. Fingers crossed, we may have a juvenile here which could have a fighting chance at 100/1+. 

This will be a tough race. A few of these two-year-old fillies have ability. Contentment is held in some regard by William Haggas. Hathfa ran well on debut when seriously backed and will improve for that debut effort. Magicinthemaking is another juvenile who I have heard a good word. In general, Jeremy Noseda's debutantes need the run but if priced 10/1 & less SP has claims. Promising wasn't fancied in the betting on debut but ran exceptionally well to put down a fair challenge to Perfect Angel. Partitia was made favourite on debut for Sir Michael Stoute but needed the race and will improve. If strong in the betting, this daughter of Bated Breath could be a powerhouse.

All the above are challengers. All are there to oppose our big priced tip. But should that put us off a calculated bet? Of course not. It's a fact that if you don't back a big priced horse you will never have a big priced winner. Simple. But how many times do you hear about the eternal favourite backer questioning his luck?

So which horse do we fancy here? 

Chica De La Noche. This bay filly is a daughter of owned by Robert Moss and trained by Simon Dow. Robert purchased this filly at the yearling sales for 62,000G. She ran a cracking race on debut at Goodwood when finishing 5th at odds of 50/1. This filly is a good looker and strong. I was impressed by her physicality and the fact this April foal wasn't pressed under a hands and heels ride. I was very encouraged by that performance and held some hope that second start would see a bold show. She was relatively fancied at Lingfield but what happened in the race is something of a mystery.There was a storm and there was no TV coverage so we only have race comments to make an assessment. In truth, they give no understanding of anything much. The ground changed to good to soft and the time was six seconds slow. In addition, with being off course for over two months I would consider Dow's filly had a problem that day or since. Simon Dow is a capable handler and I suspect they like this filly, the reason why she started her career at Goodwood.   

At odds of 100/1 is worth a speculative bet at each-way odds. 


A Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 6f on good going. Thirteen runners and a hot race with a few fancied two-year-olds. Richard Fahey has Vaulted, who was fancied to go well on debut. This bay filly didn't do much wrong, finishing third, beaten less than one length. This homebred for Cheveley Park Stud is clearly held in some regard but that factor may take the eye off their other juvenile Volta Do Mar. This daughter of Henrythenavigator was relatively fancied when making her debut at Beverley one-hundred days ago. She is a good-looking juvenile and not sold for 7,500G is most likely a bargain buy whatever price she changed hands, especially if it was around that figure. She blew all chance with a terribly slow start that day but ran on with purpose in the closing stages suggesting this extra furlong will suit. With all speculative bets, you have to take a leap of faith and such a spell on the sidelines brings many question marks. However, at odds of 40/1 I have seen worse bets and it wouldn't be a surprise to see this youngster backed and run well if fit and ready on this second start.