Saturday, 5 October 2019

Why Betting at Speculative Odds Gives Punters a Winning Edge

Red Rum was a favourite in the Grand National 1974
My uncle was a favourite backer. 

He loved his racing but it kind of saddened me to think he would never have a big priced winner. That 33/1 shot, which clambered home by a nose, would never be part of his conversation over a pint. The winners came thick and fast but he was never in profit. He was the reason for the post I wrote: He's Backed Every Favourite Since 1973

But who is to say betting on the favourite is wrong? If you enjoy going to Great Yarmouth racecourse you may well have a fighting chance of winning money as it is very much a favourites track. 

Each to their own. 

From betting on two-year-old horses for decades I have learnt a few things. The act of betting isn't something you should do for fun. True, the majority of punters bet for recreation. Even though they want to win, their actions don't mirror this what should be their focus. I rarely bet at odds below 11/4. I would never say never because the true marker of a talented gambler is knowing when to bet to win long term. Over a short period of time, even the best gambler can lose. Very few punters can avoid losing runs although, to be fair, if you bet selectively you should keep a steady pace rather than the ups and downs of those dreaded peaks (the good part) and troughs (shock horror). A favourite can be a great bet. It is crazy to say I would never bet odds-on even though my general assessment would state this is (and probably should be) a rare bet. It is all about value. And, yes, even a horse priced 1/10f can be value. 

But what about speculative bets?  How do they figure in your betting? Have you ever had a 33/1 winner? 

If you never bet on a big price horse you will never have a big priced winner. It's stating the obvious but it is true. 

When looking through the racing results have you noticed that every favourite wins every race? 

No. Becuase they don't. Mingled between the favourites which may bookend a card, there are horses winning at all odds. 

The Grand National has seen five 100/1 winners over the years. 

have found the day my betting bank jumped up significantly it is when one of those ''no-hopers'' find their way to the winner's enclosure. 

£50 on a 20/1, and a lovely £1,000 bumps it up nicely. My brother has seen a few exceptional betting days where he won £4,000 for a bet of £20. Yes, the horse won on debut at odds of 200/1. This came from betting on the exchanges. I think the filly [Puggy] was priced 50/1 or 66/1 with the bookmakers. 

To win at gambling you have to know that little more than the rest. The good thing about betting on outsiders is that you are bucking the trend of the crowd. That in itself is a wise move when it comes to gambling. 

If you are a favourites man then you are far from wrong in your thinking if your betting pays. But take note that not every favourite wins and that big priced winner could have been yours if you had been looking in the right direction.