Monday, 12 November 2018

1:05 Southwell Racing Tips (12th November)

Southwell Racing Tips
SOUTHWELL 1.05 

I've only found 2 in this race that has been known to lead and they are Archie Stevens from stall 8 and my 4th top rated but the trainers record is 1-18 and the jockey is 0-19 for this stable which isn't great, the other front-runner is SIR GEOFFREY 33/1 but its stuck out in stall 13 but in the make-up of this race it could get to the front and could then prove hard to catch and I think the price is that big because of the draw and I will, therefore, have an each way wager on it and if it is backed I would then look to lay some of the potential profits, my 3rd top despite this not being its favoured surface is Novabridge and it likes to track the leaders so could make the frame, my 2nd top rated is PIAZON 15/2 who could be the one to prosper if my other selection doesn't get to the front from its wide draw and I will back them both to cover both angles to show a profit whichever one does the business. 

Piazon 8/1 1st
Sir Geoffrey 33/1 Unp

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Thursday, 8 November 2018

8:15 Chelmsford Racing Tips (8th November)

CHELMSFORD 8.15 Div 1 

There's eight 3-year-olds entered in this race and 6 run in this division which makes it hard for me to be 100% confident but one of them, SPARKALEX 16/1, is my top-rated using a time on this surface but at Kempton and if repeating the time would have a decent chance of winning this race plus its one of only 2 known front-runners in the race and I will back it each way at the price, the horse I've got top rated on course and distance times is CATHEADAN'S FURY 9/2 who is usually known to be staying on strongly at the finish and I will go with backing the 2 selections to cover both angles. 

Catheadan's Fury 9/2 4th 
Sparkalex 20/1 8th  

CHELMSFORD 8.45 Div 2 

This division isn't any easier, Kraka is 3rd top but the trainer doesn't do well here with a 2-82 win record, Turanga Leela is a possible front runner from stall 2 but its best time only makes it 4th on my list so needs others to falter unless allowed an easy lead but i doubt that very much as Wotadoll is another natural front-running sort but the time it recorded here earlier when finishing 2nd was way above the usual sort of times for this class of race so it may have been flattered in a flukey sort of run but i cannot ignore it completely so I will probably back it as a smaller covering bet just in case it can repeat the time, my main selection will be BILLYOAKES 12/1 who is very versatile with its racing tactics and it could follow Wotadoll across to the rails and get a good early position from which to attack nearing the finish and the price allows me to go with an each way wager.

Billyoaks 20/1 8th 

Tuesday, 30 October 2018

2:40 Nottingham Racing Tips (31st October)

NOTTINGHAM 2.40 (7.0)

The going forecast for this meeting is given as good and good to firm in places with a stick reading of 7.7 so I'm hoping it stays that way as its the only sprint for the day. 

OCELOT comes out 5th top using a time from Ascot this year and usually tracks the leaders. 

SAMOVAR may not like the going unless it rains and one i would lay if it remains dry 

SUWAAN has been known to lead before but needs to improve timewise to win this race 

TAN is usually running on strongly at this distance, my 3rd top rated so could make the frame 

WRENTHORPE has only recorded slow times at this distance on g/f going, races near the pace 

DR DORO another possible leader but not in my top 5 speed figures so may struggle here 

BECKER has only done relatively slow times and may need further to flourish 

GRANDFATHER TOM usually likes to track the leaders but needs to improve to win this race 

SUITCASE N TAXI hasn't done a fast enough time and hasn't been in good form recently 

MADAME BOUNTY be staying on at the finish but likely to be too late to even make the frame

BELLEVARDE isn't in my top 5 but is versatile tactics wise apart from actually leading 

YORKSHIREDEBUT is 2nd top rated on a 2017 Nottingham time but poor recent form 

LYDIATE LADY my 3rd top rated and the trainer does well here, doesn't want it too fast going 

UNDERCOVER BROTHER my top rated and a possible pacesetter and only a 3-year-old 

PAVERS PRIDE outside my top 5 but quite a versatile type 

BELLEDESERT another possible pacesetter needs to improve timewise. 

SUMMARY: There's 7 horses in this race that have led before so it should be a true run race, my joint 3rd top rated pair, Tan and Lydiate Lady, could be the ones to prosper if they go off too fast but my top 2 ratings are both front-running types, Yorkshiredebut is my 2nd top rated but recorded it on a flat type of course in 2017 but hasn't been at that level so far this year and this stiffer course might not suit it as well either but my top rated is the 3-year-old UNDERCOVER BROTHER 33/1 who could possibly be able to improve even further and if getting to the front ought to prove very hard to pass and the price means I will be having each way wager.

Undercover Brother 50/1 Unp

Tuesday, 23 October 2018

Four Contenders for the Melbourne Cup

The Melbourne Cup is the signature meet of the Australian racing calendar, as trainers and owners from across the globe descend upon Flemington Racecourse at the beginning of November. Lloyd Williams’ two wins in the last two seasons have seen him become the most successful owner in the history of the event. He will look to secure a third win on the bounce, although there are plenty of quality horses competing at Flemington: Yucatan, Magic Circle and Avilius will all be vying for the crown along with Joseph O’Brien’s Latrobe.

Latrobe 

O’Brien is searching for his second win in a row in the Melbourne Cup after training Rekindling to victory last term. Latrobe has an opportunity for success in Australia and seems to have the taste for the big occasion, although he did endure a slow start to the campaign. He began his season at Naas and although he was considered the favourite for his opening race, the three-year-old lost out by a neck to Hunting Horn. Latrobe was slightly off the pace in his next outing at the Airlie Stud Gallinule Stakes, placing in second two-and-a-quarter lengths behind Platinum Warrior in Curragh. The Irish horse ended his winless drought with a dominant performance at Curragh at the beginning of June, finishing well ahead of the rest of the field.

His triumph sent him into the Irish Derby with momentum, although O’Brien’s charge was still considered an outsider for the win. However, with Donnacha O’Brien in the saddle, Latrobe put forward an outstanding run, powering away from a quality field, including Saxon Warrior, to claim the victory by half-a-length. He failed to build on his triumph at the Juddmonte International Stakes. The pace of Roaring Lion was too much for the rest of the competitors as Latrobe placed down in seventh, 10-and-a-half lengths behind. There was an opportunity for redemption at the Irish St Leger in Curragh, although Flag of Honour was present in the field and named the favourite for the event. However, he was beaten out by his compatriot by two-and-three-quarter lengths. Latrobe does have good value in the range of 12-14 for the title, although if Oddschecker’s list of cup runners' at the major bookmakers is anything to go by, he's not considered the leading contender for the event. Indeed, his recent form is a concern, although he is more than capable of raising the level of his game. And of course, it all comes down to how his big competitors been looking during the 2018 season. 


Yucatan

Aidan O’Brien’s charge began the season with an underwhelming performance at Naas, finishing off the pace in fourth place in April. His next outing in May was not a fruitful one for the Irish horse either, placing in third off the pace of Cliffs of Moher, who won the Mooresbridge Stakes. Despite his early-season issues Yucatan was put forward for the Coronation Cup. It was clear from the off that the four-year-old would struggle to match the speed of the elite horses in the field. Cracksman won the event by a head over Salouen, with Yucatan bringing up the rear. He would again fail to find his form at the next major outing, delivering a poor performance at the Wolferton Stakes, placing last in the race at Royal Ascot. 


The Irish horse needed a win to get back on track and ended his drought in the 2018 season at Curragh in a Group Three event in the International Stakes. He controlled the race and was able to close out the victory by one length ahead of Stellar Mass. However, Aidan O’Brien’s charge took another step back in his final appearance of the English and Irish season, placing in third behind Eizyra and Stellar Mass at the Ballyroan Stakes. Yucatan arrived in Australia to build form for the Melbourne Cup in October. The Irish horse was considered one of the leading contenders for the Herbert Power Stakes, despite his lack of form. With James McDonald in the saddle, he found his rhythm to produce his strongest outing of the term and won the race by one-and-a-quarter lengths. His performance has given the bookmakers confidence, but Yucatan’s inconsistent displays would be a concern.

Magic Circle 


The Irish horse has benefited from a change in trainer this term as Ian Williams has helped guide his charge to victories in his only two races of the campaign. Magic Circle was inconsistent, to say the least, under Ralph Beckett, although he did produce a win at York last season with Harry Bentley in the saddle. However, his underwhelming outing in the Cesarewitch Handicap ended his tenure with Beckett as he placed down in 13th at the end of the 2017 season. Magic Circle passed into Williams’ yard and after a 209-day break, he returned to action at Chester. 

The six-year-old was a slight outsider for the Chester Cup but produced one of the strongest performances of his career to dominate the rest of the field, finishing six lengths ahead of his nearest rival for the win. He backed up his outing at Chester with another fine run at Sandown Park in a Group Three event. John Gosden’s Weekender was considered the favourite for the race, although Williams and his charge were able to rise to the occasion to triumph. Once again Magic Circle hit his stride and was able to pull away down the straight to claim the victory by six lengths. The Irish horse has talent, although his pedigree is in question against elite competition. 

Avilius 

The four-year-old is another horse that has changed hands over the last year, with James Cummings taking control from Andre Fabre. Avilius failed to find his form after racing solely in France but has enjoyed great success in Australia since making his bow down under in August. He began the season in the Tony Crawford 50th Handicap at Randwick and enjoyed a tense battle with Dagny down the stretch for the win, edging out his rival by a neck to claim the win in the one-mile event. Cummings’ charge was able to maintain his form at the Premier's Cup at Rosehill. Once again he needed pace down the stretch to close out the victory, beating out a charge from I Am Serious by a neck. 

Avilius was able to make it three triumphs on the bounce with a three-quarter-length win at the Kingston Town Stakes, delivering on expectations after being named the favourite for the race. The four-year-old tested the ground at Flemington ahead of the Cup in his outing at the Bart Cummings. He was considered the leading contender and produced another strong display, although he needed every inch of space down the stretch to edge his way over the line ahead of Jaameh. Avilius has the form in Australia, but whether it translates to a higher standard of competition remains to be seen. 

The Outcome? 

It would be no surprise to see any one of these horses in the winners' circle come the end of the race on November 6. Based on form and value, it could be worth backing O'Brien and Williams for another win, given Latrobe's pedigree among elite competition over the course of the UK and Irish season.

Monday, 15 October 2018

6:15 Kempton Speculative Bet (15th October)

Kempton Horse Racing Tips
KEMPTON 6.15 

This is a nice looking class 3 race over 5 furlongs with just 2 front-running types, Captain Lars could attempt to set the pace coming out of stall 2 and is my 3rd best rating using a Chelmsford time as its not run over this c/d before, in 2nd spot I've got GEORGE DRYDEN 11/1 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and this one best time was done this year and the jockey booked to ride has a 6-12 record for this stable which looks a good pointer to its chances here but I do have the topweight ALSVINDER 10/1 as my top rated, this one best time was recorded in 2017 but it hasn't run over this c/d this year, its the other known pacesetting type so if leading and at its best it could well lead all the way here but I will go with backing them both each way to cover the angles. 

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Alsvinder 10/1 1st 
George Dryden 14/1 Unp

Wednesday, 3 October 2018

4:20 Salisbury Racing Tips (3rd October)

SALISBURY 4.20 (8.2) 

I am hoping that LIGHTNING CHARLIE 10/1 my 4th top rated tries to lead all the way here with no other known pacesetters in the race and could be dangerous if allowed to set its own pace and the jockeys claim helps its cause, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses in Sir Roderic who will be staying on at the finish and the 3-year-old Blackheath that likes to track the pacemakers but the topweight MUJASSAM 14/1 is my top rated and this one likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and being drawn next door to the likely leader it ought to get a good tow into the race ready to pounce late on and the prices permit me to have 2 each way wagers. 

Lightning Charlie 10/1 3rd
Mujassam 14/1 6th 

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Sunday, 16 September 2018

That Horse Looks Hopeless - I'm Sure it Can Win!

In The Betting Shop
What is your type of bet? Perhaps you're a favourites man. You bet on the jolly like it's going out of fashion. In fact, you can't remember the last time you didn't back the horse which sits at the top of the market. 

There's nothing wrong with that. You do what you do. If it pays you are correct – if you lose you are wrong. We are talking long term. Even the best of successful gamblers appreciate they need to view their performance over a season. One well-established platform who say let's beat the bookies with OLBG via this handy link https://www.olbg.com/betting-tips/Horse_Racing/2  and make the most of your wagers on a daily basis. 

It is interesting to consider how you bet. I know for the majority this doesn't even register. You go in the bookmakers, check out the Racing Post, last three runs, looks ok, and bet. I'm not being funny, but compare to someone who knows a lot about betting it is boarding on criminal. If you can make your betting pay with that minimalistic style you are one lucky guy. Sadly, it's not possible. 

Why? Because you are looking at the same information as everyone else. When gambling there really isn't strength in numbers. You need to remove yourself from the crowd. You need to have your own perspective. A quiet approach which taps into value bets. 

Basically, you need to understand your niche. We go from horse racing in its entirety to a segment of the pie. Sure, the whole apple pie tastes sweet but just a little part can taste sweeter. Perhaps it has been sprinkled with cinnamon! 

My speciality is two-year-old horse racing. Our other contributor, Eric Winner, follows sprinters.

It's impossible to follow all racing. Why would you want to run ten marathons when you can win one and bet five times the money? You can see the logic. You will be better than others when you put more work into your niche and understand that you don't need to be the best punter on earth. You have to be a little bit better than most! 

That's why I come to horses which look pretty damn hopeless.

I can imagine what you are thinking. Why the hell do you want to do that? Because I can pretty much guarantee most people have written off it's chance. That can be a very good thing for me. Because some layer somewhere is a little greedy and keeps pushing the price from big, bigger to biggest. 

Those huge odds can relate to value. 

When considering betting on two-year-old horses it's easy for even a decent juvenile to disappoint on its first two starts. I can tell you, very few layers fear a horse that has disappointed both starts.

''Let's lay this thing as it's as slow as a snail.'' Most of these horses are – but not all. I've seen a lot of these horses run big races on their third start and a number have won. One of them at 999/1 on Betfair. Whether you bet on the favourite or the outsider, find a novel way of betting. If you follow the crowd long term you will never beat the bookies.

Friday, 7 September 2018

4:55 Ascot Racing Tips (7th September)

ASCOT 4.55 (8.60)

Too many runners to be confident but I've got Shepherds Purse as 4th top rated, Bounty Pursuit comes into 3rd spot and both of them like to track the leaders, in 2nd spot I've got Field Of Vision who is one of 4 in the race that has been known to lead before but my top-rated horse has a few spots in hand so I'm hoping ENGLISHMAN 20/1 can get a clear run and then stay on the stronger at the finish and once again another that's big enough to back each way.

Englishman 50/1 Unp

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Wednesday, 5 September 2018

1:40 Lingfield Racing Tips (5th September)

Free horse racing tips
LINGFIELD 1.40 

I'm not sure if Culloden will take to this surface as its only ran over this c/d once before and showed very little but a time recorded at Chelmsford would see it make the frame and it is a front runner if it can get a clear run from stall 9 and it could well do with not a lot of known early pace in the race, Nuzha and Molly Jones are others that could get involved in the finish but top on my list is BARNSDALE 25/1 and this one's trainer has a 2-11 record at this course and they have employed a 7lb claiming apprentice to help their cause here but its not a race I will be investing too heavily in as these class 7 runners are never very consistent but at such a big price I cannot let it pass without an each way bet on it.

Barnsdale 33/1 7th

Eric Winner Racing Tips 

Monday, 3 September 2018

3:55 Windsor Racing Tips (3rd September)

horse racing tips
WINDSOR 3.55 (7.5) 

Its given as g/f going and I just hope they don't water the course as with the Thames running close to the course they do seem to over water at times, there's a few in the race to ensure there's a fast early pace to this race, Capananty Con is a hold up type and my joint 2nd top rated and despite being the bottom right its actually dropped down a grade to run in this race but could stay on into a place,Danecase is the other 2nd top rated and this one likes to track the pacesetters, it recorded its best time here in 2017 and would need to bounce back to form to get competitive here but my top rated is LITTLE PALAVER 16/1 who also recorded its best at this c/d, they have booked a 7lb claiming apprentice who has a 2-11 record for this stable and I don't mind an apprentice riding front-running horses so I'm hoping that's the plan here and it can lead from start to finish and at the price I will have each way wager. 

Little Palaver 16/1 Unp

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