Sunday, 14 November 2021

Eric Winner - The Best Horse Racing Tipster in the World

So you can't win at the races!

That's what people tell you, hey. I tell you who those people are, should I? They are people who have never won at betting at the races, betting on horses, or betting on anything, to be honest. 

The fact of the matter is that people do win at betting. And I can prove it to you. Take, for example, Eric Winner has been tipping racing tips January 2014. True, he has his good and bad months. That's what happens to tipsters. The price of gold has gone up and down over the decades. That's life! However, Eric Winner knows his sprint racing. For those who have no understanding of thoroughbred horse racing, that means racing over 5 & 6 furlongs. 

Anyway, I guess you want to know what has made me write this post and state this fact. May proved a brilliant month for Eric. He had 14 winners, 14/1, 18/1 & 25/1 winners, a total of 117 points in winners. True, you have to take off a few losers throughout the month but very few horse racing tipsters tip winners of those prices in a year let alone a month. Certain tipster would never tip such big-priced winners in their life. Far too many favourite-backers out there. 

If you want a fair bet then I would suggest you take a closer look at Eric Winner (Sprint King). 

Who else do you know has tipped a 100/1 winner? What about the day he gave a Trifecta worth £628.99

Eric Winner has done exactly that. 

Why Betting at Speculative Odds Gives Punters a Winning Edge

My uncle was a favourite backer. 

He loved his racing but it kind of saddened me to think he would never have a big priced winner. That 33/1 shot, which clambered home by a nose, would never be part of his conversation over a pint. The winners came thick and fast but he was never in profit. He was the reason for the post I wrote: He's Backed Every Favourite Since 1973

But who is to say betting on the favourite is wrong? If you enjoy going to Great Yarmouth racecourse you may well have a fighting chance of winning money as it is very much a favourites track. 

Each to their own. 

From betting on two-year-old horses for decades I have learnt a few things. The act of betting isn't something you should do for fun. True, the majority of punters bet for recreation. 

They want to win, but their actions don't mirror this.

I rarely bet at odds below 11/4. I would never say never because the true marker of a talented gambler is knowing when to bet. 

Over a short period of time, even the best gambler can lose. 

Very few punters can avoid losing runs although, to be fair, if you bet selectively you should keep a steady pace rather than the ups and downs of those dreaded peaks (the good part) and troughs (shock horror). A favourite can be a great bet. It is crazy to say I would never bet odds-on even though my general assessment would state this is (and probably should be) a rare bet. It is all about value. And, yes, even a horse priced 1/10f can be value. 

But what about speculative bets?  How do they figure in your betting? Have you ever had a 33/1 winner? 

If you never bet on a big price horse you will never have a big priced winner. It's stating the obvious but it is true. 

When looking through the racing results have you noticed that every favourite wins every race? 

No. Becuase they don't. Mingled between the favourites which may bookend a card, there are horses winning at all odds. 

The Grand National has seen five 100/1 winners over the years. 

have found the day my betting bank jumped up significantly it is when one of those ''no-hopers'' find their way to the winner's enclosure. 

£50 on a 20/1, and a lovely £1,000 bumps it up nicely. My brother has seen a few exceptional betting days where he won £4,000 for a bet of £20. Yes, the horse won on debut at odds of 200/1. This came from betting on the exchanges. I think the filly [Puggy] was priced 50/1 or 66/1 with the bookmakers. 

To win at gambling you have to know that little more than the rest. The good thing about betting on outsiders is that you are bucking the trend of the crowd. That in itself is a wise move when it comes to gambling. 

If you are a favourites man then you are far from wrong in your thinking if your betting pays. But take note that not every favourite wins and that big priced winner could have been yours if you had been looking in the right direction. 

Monday, 20 September 2021

Is Gambling Stupid Simple?

What image comes to mind when you think of a gambler? 

The chances are it will be negative. The stereotype of a gambler doesn't inspire positives. 

Who do you know that gambles? Perhaps they have lived up to the seemingly natural expectation of being a loser. However, it is worth stopping for a moment to consider how we view a gamble. 

Whether you have ever placed a bet or not, you have gambled throughout your life. Each and every decision whether large or small has to some extent been a gamble. Can we ever be sure of the outcome of the most simple act? Crossing the road doesn't seem like a gamble but for the poor soul struck by a vehicle, it may have been a decision which cost their life. For that reason, I think people who say they don't gamble are naive. I would rather consider life as a gamble than not. Why? Because I am more prepared for the outcome. That doesn't mean to say I will be correct but at least I will be less ignorant. Even if it is one gamble from a million that decision may be worthy of note. 

In truth, I would not advise anyone to gamble on sports for fun. To add a little bit of interest. There is no fun in losing money. You hear people say: ''Are you betting with your head with your heart?'' As a proud football supporter, could you bet on the opposing side? 

You have probably answered the question. 

Betting so often relates to fixed odds. The spin of a roulette wheel. Long term you cannot possibly win. But betting on a skill-based sport isn't about luck. 

In his prime, Linford Christie would have been priced 1/100 against 99 per cent of the male UK population racing over 100m. 

Playing chess is a skill. 

Would you like to take on a county player when you are a beginner? You would have no chance of winning. 

Not through luck. 


Betting on a sport is the same. If someone knows their sport to a high standard you are a fool to think you can beat them. Nine out of ten times they would make you look inferior. That's why you need to learn your niche and hone your skills. The fun aspect of gambling is not the gamble itself. That should be mechanical, exacting and precise. Knowing your sport and appreciating your skill is the fun part. It has probably taken years to understand. It has value. It could be of huge value. 

I often find people stupidly ignorant when it comes to gambling. In the sense that they clearly know nothing at all but feel they can appreciate that it simply isn't possible to beat the bookies. 

It is like me questioning my doctor about illness because I Googled it five minutes before I entered the room. The doctor would be irritated or bemused. Rightfully so. They know what they are talking about because they have honed their skills. Strangely, they didn't just wake up one morning and think I'm a doctor. 

But that is what people are saying so often to those who gamble and win. 

It is strange how a stockbroker is viewed so differently from a gambler. They are one and the same thing. Their success or failure isn't based on their job title it is based on their success. Their success is based on their skill. This skill – without question – took years to understand. 

I'm not being funny but my skill within two-year-old horse race betting is akin to me being Linford Christie and you are the fat kid who lives down the street. That is a general average. Some kids will be fatter. Some will be thinner. Some will be smart. Some will be fitter, faster and smarter. On average, they will never know as much as me because I have trained to be the exception to the rule. 

It's something you could be good at too. But you can't be bothered or it sounds too much like hard work. 

You will not wake up one day and know more. 

That almost comical perspective of gambling success or failure is in actual fact a true reflection of life. 

When people say they don't gamble I see a naive person. Sometimes I see a complete fool. 

Perhaps betting with money is different from betting with life chances. I wouldn't see a difference. I would be more careful when betting life chances because one wrong move can equate to a lifetime of money in a split second. Make the wrong choice and you could be paying for it until the last day of your life. 

Perhaps that gamble means this is the last minute of your life. The decision to take drugs, cross the road, or anything else you can imagine. I would rather appreciate a gamble living in the here and now. The circumstance of any gamble can be turned in your favour by skill. Before you bet, learn what you need to know to be a winner. Or at the very least, to have the odds in your favour.

Monday, 21 June 2021

Major Horse Racing Festival/Events Around the Globe

Every year the world’s finest racehorses gather at a select few meetings to battle it out for the ultimate prizes in the sport of kings. Punters around the world rejoice at the prospect of such a large number of elite contests clustered together into one enthralling extravaganza of top-class racing. The prizes are high, the races are ferociously competitive and it offers a great opportunity for speculative bettors to find great value on intriguing outsiders. Here are the top five global meetings to look out for each year: 

Royal Ascot

Nothing can compete with the pomp, majesty and grandeur on display at Royal Ascot, which sees Queen Elizabeth II arrive in a horse-drawn cart to cheer on her runners. More than 300,000 racegoers put on their finest garbs and head to Berkshire to watch the action unfold. Over the course of five days, they guzzle 56,000 bottles of Champagne, wolf down 240,000 teacakes and send 3,500 lobsters to meet their maker. But beneath all the glitz, glamour and ceremony lies a phenomenal collection of Group 1 races that are steeped in heritage. The Gold Cup, Queen Anne Stakes, King’s Stand Stakes, St James’s Palace Stakes, Prince of Wales’s Stakes, Commonwealth Cup, Coronation Stakes, Diamond Jubilee Stakes are all massive races that draw the world’s finest runners, jockeys and trainers to Britain to compete for glory. Royal Ascot features 19 Group races and it always provides a thrilling spectacle. 

Dubai World Cup Carnival

This is the single richest day of thoroughbred racing in the world, with a total prize purse of $35 million on offer in 2019. That level of investment ensures that many of the world’s finest sprinters and stayers head to the Meydan Racecourse to fight for fame and fortune. The centrepiece is the Dubai World Cup, the world’s richest race with a prize pool of $12 million. Godolphin star Thunder Snow secured a second consecutive victory in 2019, following in the footsteps of such titans as Arrogate and California Chrome. The day also includes the Dubai Turf and the Dubai Sheema Classic, which are both among the top 10 richest races in the world, with prize money of $6 million apiece. You can also take in the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint and the Group 1 Dubai Golden Shaheen, while the Godolphin Miles, the Dubai Gold Cup and the UAE Derby carry Group 2 status. 

Spring Racing Carnival 

Every year the world’s leading lights descend upon Victoria to contest such stellar races as the Melbourne Gold Cup, the Cox Plate and the Caulfield Cup. The Spring Racing Carnival includes a number of big meetings spread over several weeks, but they are all inextricably woven together to form the greatest schedule of racing in the world. There are important races such as the Makybe Diva and AJ Moir Stakes to look out for, but it really begins in earnest with the renewal of the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas in October, and the big races just keep on coming – the Caulfield Cup, Manikato Stakes, Cox Plate, Victoria Derby, Cantala Stakes, Coolmore Stud Stakes, Melbourne Cup, Emirates Stakes and VRC Spring Classic. The Melbourne Cup is the greatest of them all. It is dubbed the race that stops a nation, but it actually attracts hundreds of millions of viewers from around the world, and foreign raiders have dominated in recent years. If you browse the Spring Racing Carnival markets, you will note that the leading lights from Britain, Ireland, Japan and elsewhere are planning to head Down Under this year. 

Breeders’ Cup World Championships 

Every year the Breeders’ Cup World Championships captivates the world with 14 huge races spread across two days of exhilarating action. The prize money ranges from $1 million to $6 million for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, with a total of $28 million handed out over the 14 races. Success here represents the pinnacle of many trainers’ careers, such is the prestige associated to these races. All but one of them carried Grade 1 status in 2018, which culminated in a superb victory for Accelerate in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Recent winners include Arrogate, American Pharoah and Gun Runner, and the 2019 event promises to be another thrilling occasion when it heads back to Santa Anita Park. Cheltenham This is the world’s premier jumps meeting and it always delivers an unrivalled blend of drama, upsets and excitement. It is where reputations are made and broken, fortunes are won and lost and legends are born. The Grade 1 Cheltenham Gold Cup is the main event, but the Champion Hurdle, the Queen Mother Champion Chase and the Stayers’ Hurdle are all huge events too. It is one of the biggest betting events in the world, as it groups together an unrivalled 14 Grade 1 races over four days of action and it captures the imagination of serious punters and armchair fans alike. Luminaries such as Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson and Gordon Elliott loom large over proceedings and the Prestbury Cup battle between the British and the Irish adds another intriguing dimension to proceedings.

Wednesday, 9 June 2021

Saturday Evening at the Grosvenor Casino at Great Yarmouth

I don't know about you but these winter months drag like an old girl who smokes 40 a day!

There isn't much in the way of sun, warmth or fun to be had waiting for spring to raise her head. So it's time to bring a little bit of fun into the month of March with a visit to the Grosvenor Casino at Great Yarmouth. 

In ways, Yarmouth can seem a tacky, neglected hole on the Norfolk coast. However, I love the place. It has so many memories: family holidays and going to the races with my late father, Colin. Dad never got a chance to frequent the casino down Marine Parade, but I know for a fact he would have been in his element. 

To lighten up a boring winter period we are going to spend the night at Yarmouth on the 14th March and see if lady luck rubs shoulders with the Fen Boys. To be fair, I think she is a constant companion as I have won a decent sum of money playing roulette with my boring ''watch the paint dry'' system. 

Anyway, I'll talk about that in a few minutes. 

My cousin Danny suggested we go and by all accounts, it will be a bit of a family gathering with Me, Tony, Gareth, Paul, Sue, Martin, and Dan the Man. I'm not sure if there will be any newcomers but time will tell. 

The Great thing about Yarmouth is that you can get some amazing hotel prices throughout the winter. I had intended to go to the Nelson Hotel, but couldn't get there so opted for the Embassy located on Camperdown, which is one of the best streets in the town. I'm not sure if it is Victorian or Edwardian (pretty sure it is the former) but it's an attractive street. I've stayed at Andover House Hotel, just up the road, but that is a bit pricey for a night of gambling, although I would recommend it too. Anyway, the Embassy Hotel has got our custom. We have a family room including breakfast, which costs just £50. That's about £16.70 each. I really think they should up their prices because it is worth double that. David, the manager, is a lovely man and always so polite. So we are looking forward to getting back to our regular haunt.

Dan The Man, has a single room for £20-somthing quid, with breakfast, which is bordering on criminal. 

I'll be giving the staff a tip come win, lose or draw. 

Just around the corner is a gem of a restaurant called Pamela's. It's exceptional value and an equal measure of bling and fine dining. The staff is as professional as they come and the food a pure delight. 

And we haven't even got to the casino...

The Grosvenor Casino at Great Yarmouth is well worth a visit even if you don't intend to put a chip on the table and chance your luck. This listed building makes the modern casinos look like soulless dungeons. The restaurant is literally as cheap as chips but you could be rubbing shoulders with royalty such is the elegance of the building with high ceilings, chandeliers, and an atmosphere that oozes wall-to-wall class. 

I never bet much money at the casino as it is more fun than an attempt to lose my shirt. 

I will be betting on the roulette. I simply follow a chosen single number that's come up a few times and hope it comes out again. Surprisingly it does, often. There's no logic to it and pure luck. I'm winning several hundred pounds over the years and that's what I will be doing for a couple of hours until the boredom sets in or I get fed up with some Chinese bloke laying on my back to place bets like money is going out of fashion. 

If I could place a bet that a Chinese man, woman (not child) will be playing some game at Yarmouth, I'd be a millionaire. 

Dan, Paul, Sue, and perhaps Tony will be playing 3-card poker. I can't say I like the game too much. The rake is high on pair plus and I've had a really good night on that table and still been surprised how little money I won. 

On a personal note, I wonder if Graham is there?

However, I know someone (I won't mention names) won a couple of grand in September from starting with small change. Anyway, we will be having a session come the 14th March, and go back to the casino for Sunday lunch, then back home on the train. 

If you have never been to the Grosvenor Casino I would say take a look and see what you think. 

You don't even need to bet!

Photo: Pixabay free no attribution 

Monday, 3 May 2021

How to Win Playing Roulette at Grosvenor Casino Great Yarmouth

I'm sure you read this post title and thought...

One of these statements: 

What a lot of rubbish...

Tell me more...

Is it possible?

Where is Great Yarmouth? What's roulette?

For all I know, you may have had all of those thoughts in that order. Mumbo jumbo, hey. We all know that you can't win playing roulette, hey? You can't beat fixed odds because the casino is guaranteed to win long term. 

I can't see how you can win playing roulette. It's the truth. However, it's a fact that I have been to the Grosvenor Casino at Great Yarmouth at least 10 times in the last few years and I am well in profit. So why is that? What is the reason? Have I just got lucky? I think, for the most part, I have been lucky. But there may be some reason why I have increased my chances. 

Compared with all other games you can play at any UK casino, roulette gives you the best odds of winning. I think the casino edge is 2.7% which compared with the likes of pair plus on three-card poker you are a winner without trying. I think pair plus takes about 6%, which is hard work. 

Anyway, let's get back to roulette. 

I figure the only way you can win at playing roulette is by using these three variables (if you can actually call them variable):

  • Luck
  • Playing for a couple of hours
  • Betting on a single number and corner
  • Betting level stake 

Yes, you need to be lucky to win. If you are unlucky you will play and not see a number come up once. 

My approach is simple. I look to see which number has come up a couple of times in the last hour or so and bet on that religiously. There is no logic to why the number should come up again but for whatever reason it often does. 

In addition to the single number, I will bet on a corner which includes the single number. This helps to give a few wins along the way (if you are lucky). 

Bet for a couple of hours. If you bet all day and all night the casino rake will gradually take its toll and you are sure to lose. But short term your odds are not that different from the casino. In fact, they often give free bets, drinks vouchers and incentives to get you through the door which can mean when betting £20 - £50 you are pretty much betting on a level playing field. 

Just keep betting on your single number and corner and hope you get lucky. 

Monday, 19 April 2021

That Horse Looks Hopeless - I'm Sure it Can Win!

What is your type of bet? Perhaps you're a favourites man. You bet on the jolly like it's going out of fashion. In fact, you can't remember the last time you didn't back the horse which sits at the top of the market. 

There's nothing wrong with that. You do what you do. If it pays you are correct – if you lose you are wrong. We are talking long term. Even the best of successful gamblers appreciate they need to view their performance over a season. One well-established platform who say let's beat the bookies with OLBG via this handy link  and make the most of your wagers on a daily basis. 

It is interesting to consider how you bet. I know for the majority this doesn't even register. You go in the bookmakers, check out the Racing Post, last three runs, looks ok, and bet. I'm not being funny, but compare to someone who knows a lot about betting it is boarding on criminal. If you can make your betting pay with that minimalistic style you are one lucky guy. Sadly, it's not possible. 

Why? Because you are looking at the same information as everyone else. When gambling there really isn't strength in numbers. You need to remove yourself from the crowd. You need to have your own perspective. A quiet approach which taps into value bets. 

Basically, you need to understand your niche. We go from horse racing in its entirety to a segment of the pie. Sure, the whole apple pie tastes sweet but just a little part can taste sweeter. Perhaps it has been sprinkled with cinnamon! 

My speciality is two-year-old horse racing. Our other contributor, Eric Winner, follows sprinters.

It's impossible to follow all racing. Why would you want to run ten marathons when you can win one and bet five times the money? You can see the logic. You will be better than others when you put more work into your niche and understand that you don't need to be the best punter on earth. You have to be a little bit better than most! 

That's why I come to horses which look pretty damn hopeless.

I can imagine what you are thinking. Why the hell do you want to do that? Because I can pretty much guarantee most people have written off it's chance. That can be a very good thing for me. Because some layer somewhere is a little greedy and keeps pushing the price from big, bigger to biggest. 

Those huge odds can relate to value. 

When considering betting on two-year-old horses it's easy for even a decent juvenile to disappoint on its first two starts. I can tell you, very few layers fear a horse that has disappointed both starts.

''Let's lay this thing as it's as slow as a snail.'' Most of these horses are – but not all. I've seen a lot of these horses run big races on their third start and a number have won. One of them at 999/1 on Betfair. Whether you bet on the favourite or the outsider, find a novel way of betting. If you follow the crowd long term you will never beat the bookies.

Wednesday, 1 April 2020

Grand National List of Winners

It's the 6th of April 2019. 

Time: 5:15pm 

Place: Aintree Racecourse, Liverpool. 

I'm studying the form for this year's runners and riders, searching for the best betting odds because I'm looking for a speculative bet.

The Grand National is one race that stops people in their tracks. A household institution. ''Get ready for the Grand National 2019'', are the words I hear come that exciting Saturday. My uncle Alan comes round and asks me to place a few bets for him. ''Not a problem.'' 

In preparation for my speculative bet, I search on Google for the following keywords: List of Grand National winners. Click on the link to Wikipedia and ''BOOM'' the info is at hand. Why should I research past winners? Because I want to see the winning price for the contest over the last few years. There's no lack of data as the records go back to that elusive first win of Lottery who won the inaugural race at odds of 5/1f. It's quite astounding to think that the first race was dated 1839.

From that historic day, the Grand National story has been written like a rich tapestry with covers a million honest, hard, gritty and emotional words. 

Searching the list of Grand National winners, I realise that five horses have won at odds of 100/1. 

''Perhaps my speculative bet is alive and kicking''

Is there a fighting chance we can beat the favourite? 

The last favourite to win was back in 2010 when Don't Push It prevailed. The long-awaited win for Tony McCoy and legendary trainer Jonjo O'Neill. A popular victory, particularly memorable for connections of the 10/1f. 

Interesting to note that in the last 20-years just three favourites have won. A select list including Hedge Hunter 7/1f (2004), Comply Or Die 7/1f (2008) & Don't Push It 10/1f (2010).

So 17 jollies were beaten. 

The shortest price winners over that time being 10/1. Nine winners were priced over 20/1. So that's almost an even money chance of a 20/1+ winner over this period. In fact, the last ten years have seen a number of incredibly priced successors. 

Take a look at the list:

2009 - Mon Mone 100/1 
2012 - Neptunes Collonges 33/1 
2013 - Auroras Encore 66/1
2014 - Pinea Du Re 25/1
2015 - Many Clouds 25/1 
2016 - Rule The World 33/1 

So if you fancy a big price selection don't be put off by those jolly favourite-backers. If they spout on about this, that and the other them ask them how many favourites have won in the last twenty years?

I bet odds-on they have no idea. 

When the Grand National starts, I'll be cheering for a speculative to show the way. 

Good luck. 

Wednesday, 8 January 2020

7:45 Kempton Racing Tips (8th January)


This an amateur riders race which multiplies the risk factor and is probably best left alone but here's my ramblings, Fluente is 4th top-rated on its best time from 2018 and didn't run here at all last year, Hart Stopper is 3rd top-rated and is usually held up for a late run, Flowers On Venus but this one might need the run for fitness but is top-rated on its best 2018 time at Lingfield, so cannot be ignored, my 2nd top-rated is WITH CAUTION 10/1 who is one of only 2 frontrunners in the race is well drawn in stall 2 and could lead all the way here but I have to admit I have no idea about the jockey so my stakes will be on the low side of things.

With Caution 16/1 Unp

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Thursday, 2 January 2020

2:25 Lingfield Racing Tips (2nd January)


EQUALLY FAST has only poor form recently and slow times over this course and distance, it has been known to lead before but I would lay it in this race. 

TOMSHALFBROTHER hasn't any course form and now ins from 4 races on the AW tracks and overall a maiden after 9 attempts and that might not change here.

ARZAAK has only slow times recently at this c/d and its form has been quite poor overall and a losing run of 13 and one I would look to lay in this race.

ROUNDABOUT MAGIC won on Tuesday and if turning out again here it has to be on my shortlist although I'm not a fan of the apprentice jockeys 0-4 record for the stable.

PINK ICEBERG I think this one might set the early pace in this race and if allowed to dictate it could do enough to make the frame but it would need to improve to keep them all at bay.

CUBAN SPIRIT hasn't any distance form and looks as though a longer trip would suit it better and I'm not sure this race will run to suit it.

ALASKAN BAY the trainer does well here with its older horses having a 21% win rate and will be staying on strongly at the business end.

STARCHANT is a maiden after 23 runs and I doubt it will change here as it's not even made the frame in 10 AW races.

PHAROH JAKE is on a losing run of 16 and hasn't shown much form lately and age may be catching up with this 12-year-old. 

SUMMARY: I think the winner will come from either Roundabout Magic if it runs again this quickly or my top-rated ALASKAN BAY 33/1 who showed a return to form might be imminent finishing 4th on its last run and has to be worth an each-way punt at such a big price.

Alaskan Bay 33/1 4th

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