Wednesday, 12 December 2018

7 Things to consider when backing a horse

Horse racing is one of the most popular betting sports in the world. Like most sports, there are people who can make thousands from horse betting. However, the majority of horse punters tend to be casual and usually place bets based on their lucky number or the name of the horse. By following the following seven tips and factors, you can make a calculated guess on which horse to place a bet on.


PEDIGREE

Betting websites, such as Paddy Power, show the breeding pedigree for each horse that is competing in a race. Most race-horses are now bred with selected horse types to ‘create’ the ideal race-horse. Be careful which type of horse you are betting on though, as different pedigree horses are suited to different tracks. If you do find that the track type is very suitable for the horse that is racing, then waste no time and place a bet on the horse.

TRAINER HISTORY

The outcome of a race can also depend on the trainer of the horse. Horses that are trained by the same trainers may perform better on different types of surfaces e.g. better performances on a soft surface track. In some situations, there may not be a noticeable difference in the horses’ performance on different track surfaces. However, if you do spot that horses trained by certain trainers perform significantly better on certain tracks, then chances are the horse racing will also perform well and have a good chance of winning the race.

COURSE SPECIALIST

Although jockeys race on multiple tracks throughout their career, certain tracks can be stomping grounds for certain jockeys and may have experienced success multiple times on the same track. The chances of a jockey repeating their success on the same track a high considering they have the experience of racing on the track, and have the knowledge of how the track ‘plays out’. But like the other factors, choosing a winner based on the knowledge of the track isn’t enough. Other factors such as the type of horse being used will affect the outcome of a race. You can’t expect an experienced jockey to repeat their success using the slowest horse of the race.

TIME SINCE LAST RACE

Like every athlete, horses need time to recover from a previous race. A horse that is racing just a few days after their previous race may suffer in the next race when facing against horses that have had a few more days or weeks rest and are fully refreshed. Although a few days extra rest may give a horse an edge, make sure they are not out of action for too long. If a horse has competed in a race for a long period, e.g. a few months, then they will suffer due to lack of ‘race fitness’, which means they are also unlikely to win the race. Your best bet is to put a bet on a horse that has not raced in a few days, but is still fit enough to run the full race without any issues.

DROP IN CLASS

It is common in horse racing for horses to drop down classes if they are unable to compete at a higher level. When you are placing a bet on a race, keep an eye out for horses that have dropped down a couple of levels. Although previously being part of a higher class does not guarantee a win, the experience of racing at a higher level should give the horse a slight edge other their competitors.

DISTANCE TRAVELED

Horses can be imported in from far and wide in order to participate in a certain race. If you notice that a horse has been brought in from far away to participate in a single race, chances are the trainer or jockey believes that the horse has a very good chance of winning the race. However be careful. Horses that have travelled a long distance are at risk from suffering from fatigue due to the distance travelled. This could lead to the horse performing worse in the race than anticipated.

JOCKEY WINNING STREAK

You should never underestimate momentum. A jockey that is on a winning streak is far more likely to carry on their momentum and extend their streak than a jockey who hasn’t won a race in a while. Although it is entirely plausible for a jockey on a winless streak to break it, the hot streak jockey should still be favourite to win. But as mentioned earlier, you should not just use winning streaks as your only metric for picking a winner. In this example, a course specialist that is on a losing streak has the potential to come away with the win over a jockey on a winning streak.

Saturday, 8 December 2018

Saturday, 24 November 2018

5:45 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (24th November)

Horse racing At Wolverhampton WOLVERHAMPTON 5.45 

A bit surprised to find just 2 front-runners in this 5 furlong dash and my top 2 ratings are front-runners, Union Rose is my 3rd top rated on a 2017 time but hasn't raced here recently so could make the frame, ORIENTAL SPLENDOUR 14/1 is top rated using a 2017 time but this ones been in poor form so far this year and would need to bounce back to win here but never say never when its done it before, my top rated on this years form and joint 2nd top overall is HOLLANDER 8/1 and stall 6 looks ok in the make-up of this race, I will probably go with backing the latter as my main bet and a smaller covering bet on the other selection.

Hollander 8/1 3rd
Oriental Splendour 28/1 7th  

See Eric Winner's Racing Tips 

Thursday, 22 November 2018

8:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (22nd November)

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.30 

This 5 furlong dash has again 5 known front-runners and again I think it will be won from the front and in this race I will be backing my top 2 who both like to lead and my 2nd top rated is RED STRIPES 12/1 but this ones best time did come at this c/d so it cannot be overlooked while my top rated did a time 7lb faster but it was at Newcastle while its only produced slow times at this c/d in 2 attempts so I will put SIENNA SAYS 10/1as a selection as this 3-year-old could still improve and another 3-year-old in the race, Sparkalex could be a bit of a hidden danger so stakes won't be at full power but I will be having 2 small each-way bets at the prices available.

See more racing tips here [Eric Winner]

Red Stripes 12/1 2nd 
Sienna Says 12/1 Unp

Wednesday, 21 November 2018

5:50 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (21st November)

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.50 Div2 

At least in this 2nd division there's a couple of natural front running types in the race, FANTASY JUSTIFIER 14/1 could be the one to do best of those held up off the pace and this horse is a genuine hold up type and should be staying on strongly at the finish and does have the top speed figure over this c/d this year so could be worth an each way wager, Indian Affair is one of the 2 known front-runners in the race but this one would need a repeat of its best time in 2017 to be competitive here and stall 12 sure isn't ideal, my 2nd top rated on this year's figures and top rated by a good few spots on its best 2017 time is SPIRIT OF ZEBEDEE 2/1 the other front-runners and housed in stall 1 so I'm quite expecting this one to get a fast start and control the race on the rails and hopefully can lead all the way but I will have a bet on the 2 highlighted just in case it does make a slow start.

Spirit Of Zebedee 2/1 3rd
Fantasy Justifier 16/1 4th 

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Thursday, 15 November 2018

8:00 Kempton Racing Tips (15th November)

8:00 KEMPTON - Div2 

Another race where my stakes won't be at full power, I quite expect Deer Song to be fancied here after finishing 2nd last time out at this distance but it was a slow run race, Compton Prince would be competitive using its best time last year but hasnt been in good form lately, Nutini 7/4 is 0-8 on the all weather but hasnt any course form although a time from Chelmsford would see it thereabouts at the finish and should be staying on at the finish but the price is way too short to be any value, Who Told Jo Jo 20/1 has a competitive time both last year and this so could be the one to prosper if my top rated fails to deliver the goods and may be good each way value, my top rated using a 2017 time is FRANK COOL 12/1 it hasnt run on the all weather so far this year and it the switch back to an artificial surface rejuvintes it then it must have every chance, the 7lb claiming apprentice could swing things in its favour but he is looking for his 1st win on his 6th ride for the stable, I will be backing the selection each way but may have smaller covering bets on others in the race.

Frank Cool 12/1 2nd 

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Monday, 12 November 2018

1:05 Southwell Racing Tips (12th November)

Southwell Racing Tips
SOUTHWELL 1.05 

I've only found 2 in this race that has been known to lead and they are Archie Stevens from stall 8 and my 4th top rated but the trainers record is 1-18 and the jockey is 0-19 for this stable which isn't great, the other front-runner is SIR GEOFFREY 33/1 but its stuck out in stall 13 but in the make-up of this race it could get to the front and could then prove hard to catch and I think the price is that big because of the draw and I will, therefore, have an each way wager on it and if it is backed I would then look to lay some of the potential profits, my 3rd top despite this not being its favoured surface is Novabridge and it likes to track the leaders so could make the frame, my 2nd top rated is PIAZON 15/2 who could be the one to prosper if my other selection doesn't get to the front from its wide draw and I will back them both to cover both angles to show a profit whichever one does the business. 

Piazon 8/1 1st
Sir Geoffrey 33/1 Unp

See more tips at Eric Winner


Thursday, 8 November 2018

8:15 Chelmsford Racing Tips (8th November)

CHELMSFORD 8.15 Div 1 

There's eight 3-year-olds entered in this race and 6 run in this division which makes it hard for me to be 100% confident but one of them, SPARKALEX 16/1, is my top-rated using a time on this surface but at Kempton and if repeating the time would have a decent chance of winning this race plus its one of only 2 known front-runners in the race and I will back it each way at the price, the horse I've got top rated on course and distance times is CATHEADAN'S FURY 9/2 who is usually known to be staying on strongly at the finish and I will go with backing the 2 selections to cover both angles. 

Catheadan's Fury 9/2 4th 
Sparkalex 20/1 8th  

CHELMSFORD 8.45 Div 2 

This division isn't any easier, Kraka is 3rd top but the trainer doesn't do well here with a 2-82 win record, Turanga Leela is a possible front runner from stall 2 but its best time only makes it 4th on my list so needs others to falter unless allowed an easy lead but i doubt that very much as Wotadoll is another natural front-running sort but the time it recorded here earlier when finishing 2nd was way above the usual sort of times for this class of race so it may have been flattered in a flukey sort of run but i cannot ignore it completely so I will probably back it as a smaller covering bet just in case it can repeat the time, my main selection will be BILLYOAKES 12/1 who is very versatile with its racing tactics and it could follow Wotadoll across to the rails and get a good early position from which to attack nearing the finish and the price allows me to go with an each way wager.

Billyoaks 20/1 8th 

Tuesday, 30 October 2018

2:40 Nottingham Racing Tips (31st October)

NOTTINGHAM 2.40 (7.0)

The going forecast for this meeting is given as good and good to firm in places with a stick reading of 7.7 so I'm hoping it stays that way as its the only sprint for the day. 

OCELOT comes out 5th top using a time from Ascot this year and usually tracks the leaders. 

SAMOVAR may not like the going unless it rains and one i would lay if it remains dry 

SUWAAN has been known to lead before but needs to improve timewise to win this race 

TAN is usually running on strongly at this distance, my 3rd top rated so could make the frame 

WRENTHORPE has only recorded slow times at this distance on g/f going, races near the pace 

DR DORO another possible leader but not in my top 5 speed figures so may struggle here 

BECKER has only done relatively slow times and may need further to flourish 

GRANDFATHER TOM usually likes to track the leaders but needs to improve to win this race 

SUITCASE N TAXI hasn't done a fast enough time and hasn't been in good form recently 

MADAME BOUNTY be staying on at the finish but likely to be too late to even make the frame

BELLEVARDE isn't in my top 5 but is versatile tactics wise apart from actually leading 

YORKSHIREDEBUT is 2nd top rated on a 2017 Nottingham time but poor recent form 

LYDIATE LADY my 3rd top rated and the trainer does well here, doesn't want it too fast going 

UNDERCOVER BROTHER my top rated and a possible pacesetter and only a 3-year-old 

PAVERS PRIDE outside my top 5 but quite a versatile type 

BELLEDESERT another possible pacesetter needs to improve timewise. 

SUMMARY: There's 7 horses in this race that have led before so it should be a true run race, my joint 3rd top rated pair, Tan and Lydiate Lady, could be the ones to prosper if they go off too fast but my top 2 ratings are both front-running types, Yorkshiredebut is my 2nd top rated but recorded it on a flat type of course in 2017 but hasn't been at that level so far this year and this stiffer course might not suit it as well either but my top rated is the 3-year-old UNDERCOVER BROTHER 33/1 who could possibly be able to improve even further and if getting to the front ought to prove very hard to pass and the price means I will be having each way wager.

Undercover Brother 50/1 Unp

Tuesday, 23 October 2018

Four Contenders for the Melbourne Cup

The Melbourne Cup is the signature meet of the Australian racing calendar, as trainers and owners from across the globe descend upon Flemington Racecourse at the beginning of November. Lloyd Williams’ two wins in the last two seasons have seen him become the most successful owner in the history of the event. He will look to secure a third win on the bounce, although there are plenty of quality horses competing at Flemington: Yucatan, Magic Circle and Avilius will all be vying for the crown along with Joseph O’Brien’s Latrobe.

Latrobe 

O’Brien is searching for his second win in a row in the Melbourne Cup after training Rekindling to victory last term. Latrobe has an opportunity for success in Australia and seems to have the taste for the big occasion, although he did endure a slow start to the campaign. He began his season at Naas and although he was considered the favourite for his opening race, the three-year-old lost out by a neck to Hunting Horn. Latrobe was slightly off the pace in his next outing at the Airlie Stud Gallinule Stakes, placing in second two-and-a-quarter lengths behind Platinum Warrior in Curragh. The Irish horse ended his winless drought with a dominant performance at Curragh at the beginning of June, finishing well ahead of the rest of the field.

His triumph sent him into the Irish Derby with momentum, although O’Brien’s charge was still considered an outsider for the win. However, with Donnacha O’Brien in the saddle, Latrobe put forward an outstanding run, powering away from a quality field, including Saxon Warrior, to claim the victory by half-a-length. He failed to build on his triumph at the Juddmonte International Stakes. The pace of Roaring Lion was too much for the rest of the competitors as Latrobe placed down in seventh, 10-and-a-half lengths behind. There was an opportunity for redemption at the Irish St Leger in Curragh, although Flag of Honour was present in the field and named the favourite for the event. However, he was beaten out by his compatriot by two-and-three-quarter lengths. Latrobe does have good value in the range of 12-14 for the title, although if Oddschecker’s list of cup runners' at the major bookmakers is anything to go by, he's not considered the leading contender for the event. Indeed, his recent form is a concern, although he is more than capable of raising the level of his game. And of course, it all comes down to how his big competitors been looking during the 2018 season. 


Yucatan

Aidan O’Brien’s charge began the season with an underwhelming performance at Naas, finishing off the pace in fourth place in April. His next outing in May was not a fruitful one for the Irish horse either, placing in third off the pace of Cliffs of Moher, who won the Mooresbridge Stakes. Despite his early-season issues Yucatan was put forward for the Coronation Cup. It was clear from the off that the four-year-old would struggle to match the speed of the elite horses in the field. Cracksman won the event by a head over Salouen, with Yucatan bringing up the rear. He would again fail to find his form at the next major outing, delivering a poor performance at the Wolferton Stakes, placing last in the race at Royal Ascot. 


The Irish horse needed a win to get back on track and ended his drought in the 2018 season at Curragh in a Group Three event in the International Stakes. He controlled the race and was able to close out the victory by one length ahead of Stellar Mass. However, Aidan O’Brien’s charge took another step back in his final appearance of the English and Irish season, placing in third behind Eizyra and Stellar Mass at the Ballyroan Stakes. Yucatan arrived in Australia to build form for the Melbourne Cup in October. The Irish horse was considered one of the leading contenders for the Herbert Power Stakes, despite his lack of form. With James McDonald in the saddle, he found his rhythm to produce his strongest outing of the term and won the race by one-and-a-quarter lengths. His performance has given the bookmakers confidence, but Yucatan’s inconsistent displays would be a concern.

Magic Circle 


The Irish horse has benefited from a change in trainer this term as Ian Williams has helped guide his charge to victories in his only two races of the campaign. Magic Circle was inconsistent, to say the least, under Ralph Beckett, although he did produce a win at York last season with Harry Bentley in the saddle. However, his underwhelming outing in the Cesarewitch Handicap ended his tenure with Beckett as he placed down in 13th at the end of the 2017 season. Magic Circle passed into Williams’ yard and after a 209-day break, he returned to action at Chester. 

The six-year-old was a slight outsider for the Chester Cup but produced one of the strongest performances of his career to dominate the rest of the field, finishing six lengths ahead of his nearest rival for the win. He backed up his outing at Chester with another fine run at Sandown Park in a Group Three event. John Gosden’s Weekender was considered the favourite for the race, although Williams and his charge were able to rise to the occasion to triumph. Once again Magic Circle hit his stride and was able to pull away down the straight to claim the victory by six lengths. The Irish horse has talent, although his pedigree is in question against elite competition. 

Avilius 

The four-year-old is another horse that has changed hands over the last year, with James Cummings taking control from Andre Fabre. Avilius failed to find his form after racing solely in France but has enjoyed great success in Australia since making his bow down under in August. He began the season in the Tony Crawford 50th Handicap at Randwick and enjoyed a tense battle with Dagny down the stretch for the win, edging out his rival by a neck to claim the win in the one-mile event. Cummings’ charge was able to maintain his form at the Premier's Cup at Rosehill. Once again he needed pace down the stretch to close out the victory, beating out a charge from I Am Serious by a neck. 

Avilius was able to make it three triumphs on the bounce with a three-quarter-length win at the Kingston Town Stakes, delivering on expectations after being named the favourite for the race. The four-year-old tested the ground at Flemington ahead of the Cup in his outing at the Bart Cummings. He was considered the leading contender and produced another strong display, although he needed every inch of space down the stretch to edge his way over the line ahead of Jaameh. Avilius has the form in Australia, but whether it translates to a higher standard of competition remains to be seen. 

The Outcome? 

It would be no surprise to see any one of these horses in the winners' circle come the end of the race on November 6. Based on form and value, it could be worth backing O'Brien and Williams for another win, given Latrobe's pedigree among elite competition over the course of the UK and Irish season.