Wednesday, 15 May 2019

2:25 York Racing Tips (15th May)

YORK 2.25 

A massive field of 22 runners already puts me on my back foot in betting terms as a horse may need a degree of luck to get a clear run throughout the whole race and its not very often I bet in big fields like this but im hoping ive found something that will put a few quid in mine and yours pockets, I won't bother explaining anything about the opposition and just detail the top 2 horses, coming out of stall 13 in the shape of Vibrant Chords 10/1 who is my top rated but I have had to go back to 2017 to find that time, the trainer has a 19% win rate at this course and the jockey has a 25% win ratio for this stable so it looks as though the connections are expecting a big run in this lovely class 2 handicap and at a double figure price means it could be each way bet but it has flattered to deceive before so with it finishing 2nd last time out doesnt mean it will be able to go one better in this race where theres a lot more depth of good class animals, the one I will be backing to small stakes is REPUTATION 10/1 who won last time out over this distance at Ripon and has been found a chance to follow up here and at the price it will be each way wager. 

Reputation 14/1 8th 

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Sunday, 5 May 2019

Is Gambling Stupid Simple?

What image comes to mind when you think of a gambler? 

The chances are it will be negative. The stereotype of a gambler doesn't inspire positives. 

Who do you know that gambles? Perhaps they have lived up to the seemingly natural expectation of being a loser. However, it is worth stopping for a moment to consider how we view a gamble. 

Whether you have ever placed a bet or not, you have gambled throughout your life. Each and every decision whether large or small has to some extent been a gamble. Can we ever be sure of the outcome of the most simple act? Crossing the road doesn't seem like a gamble but for the poor soul struck by a vehicle, it may have been a decision which cost their life. For that reason, I think people who say they don't gamble are naive. I would rather consider life as a gamble than not. Why? Because I am more prepared for the outcome. That doesn't mean to say I will be correct but at least I will be less ignorant. Even if it is one gamble from a million that decision may be worthy of note. 

In truth, I would not advise anyone to gamble on sports for fun. To add a little bit of interest. There is no fun in losing money. You hear people say: ''Are you betting with your head with your heart?'' As a proud football supporter, could you bet on the opposing side? 

You have probably answered the question. 

Betting so often relates to fixed odds. The spin of a roulette wheel. Long term you cannot possibly win. But betting on a skill-based sport isn't about luck. 

In his prime, Linford Christie would have been priced 1/100 against 99 per cent of the male UK population racing over 100m. 

Playing chess is a skill. 

Would you like to take on a county player when you are a beginner? You would have no chance of winning. 

Not through luck. 


Betting on a sport is the same. If someone knows their sport to a high standard you are a fool to think you can beat them. Nine out of ten times they would make you look inferior. That's why you need to learn your niche and hone your skills. The fun aspect of gambling is not the gamble itself. That should be mechanical, exacting and precise. Knowing your sport and appreciating your skill is the fun part. It has probably taken years to understand. It has value. It could be of huge value. 

I often find people stupidly ignorant when it comes to gambling. In the sense that they clearly know nothing at all but feel they can appreciate that it simply isn't possible to beat the bookies. 

It is like me questioning my doctor about illness because I Googled it five minutes before I entered the room. The doctor would be irritated or bemused. Rightfully so. They know what they are talking about because they have honed their skills. Strangely, they didn't just wake up one morning and think I'm a doctor. 

But that is what people are saying so often to those who gamble and win. 

It is strange how a stockbroker is viewed so differently from a gambler. They are one and the same thing. Their success or failure isn't based on their job title it is based on their success. Their success is based on their skill. This skill – without question – took years to understand. 

I'm not being funny but my skill within two-year-old horse race betting is akin to me being Linford Christie and you are the fat kid who lives down the street. That is a general average. Some kids will be fatter. Some will be thinner. Some will be smart. Some will be fitter, faster and smarter. On average, they will never know as much as me because I have trained to be the exception to the rule. 

It's something you could be good at too. But you can't be bothered or it sounds too much like hard work. 

You will not wake up one day and know more. 

That almost comical perspective of gambling success or failure is in actual fact a true reflection of life. 

When people say they don't gamble I see a naive person. Sometimes I see a complete fool. 

Perhaps betting with money is different from betting with life chances. I wouldn't see a difference. I would be more careful when betting life chances because one wrong move can equate to a lifetime of money in a split second. Make the wrong choice and you could be paying for it until the last day of your life. 

Perhaps that gamble means this is the last minute of your life. The decision to take drugs, cross the road, or anything else you can imagine. I would rather appreciate a gamble living in the here and now. The circumstance of any gamble can be turned in your favour by skill. Before you bet, learn what you need to know to be a winner. Or at the very least, to have the odds in your favour.

Monday, 29 April 2019

2:20 Newcastle Racing Tips (29th April)

Speculative bet

A competitive all-weather handicap even though its a class 6 affair, im keeping it short and concentrate on my top 4 ratings, Scuzeme hasn't run over this c/d recently but has a time from 2017 that would make it my 2nd top rated, Kroy is near the bottom of the handicap and should be staying on at the finish and cannot be written off, DUKE COSIMO 14/1 is another where I've had to go back to 2017 to find its best time but the jockey booking looks very positive as their record is 3-7 for this stable so I have to back it but I will also be backing CUPPACOCO 25/1 because its done a time this year which is very close to the top and its proven to be in form while the other 3 I had to go back to 2017 so two each way bets on my selections looks the way ahead. 

Duke Cosimo 14/1 Unp
Cuppacoco 25/1 Unp

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Thursday, 18 April 2019

7:30 Chelmsford (18th April) Independence Day to Spring a Surprise at 20/1

Chelmsford Racecourse 2019

Strangely for a 5 furlong race there's only 2 known pacesetters in the race, Precious Plum is my 3rd top rated and drawn in stall 12 which might not be too bad in this race with early pace in the 2 stalls on its inside, Alaskan Bay likes to track the leaders and is in stall 8 so could get a tow into the race here but top rated is INDEPENDENCE DAY 20/1 drawn in stall 10 and im hoping it can get away smartly, head over to the rails and gain control of the race for an all the way victory and the price again makes it worth doing each way.

Independence Day 20/1 Unp

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Tuesday, 16 April 2019

How to Win Playing Roulette at Grosvenor Casino Great Yarmouth

I'm sure you read this post title and thought...

One of these statements: 

What a lot of rubbish...

Tell me more...

Is it possible?

Where is Great Yarmouth? What's roulette?

For all I know, you may have had all of those thoughts in that order. Mumbo jumbo, hey. We all know that you can't win playing roulette, hey? You can't beat fixed odds because the casino is guaranteed to win long term. 

I can't see how you can win playing roulette. It's the truth. However, it's a fact that I have been to the Grosvenor Casino at Great Yarmouth at least 10 times in the last few years and I am well in profit. So why is that? What is the reason? Have I just got lucky? I think, for the most part, I have been lucky. But there may be some reason why I have increased my chances. 

Compared with all other games you can play at any UK casino, roulette gives you the best odds of winning. I think the casino edge is 2.7% which compared with the likes of pair plus on three-card poker you are a winner without trying. I think pair plus takes about 6%, which is hard work. 

Anyway, let's get back to roulette. 

I figure the only way you can win at playing roulette is by using these three variables (if you can actually call them variable):

  • Luck
  • Playing for a couple of hours
  • Betting on a single number and corner
  • Betting level stake 

Yes, you need to be lucky to win. If you are unlucky you will play and not see a number come up once. 

My approach is simple. I look to see which number has come up a couple of times in the last hour or so and bet on that religiously. There is no logic to why the number should come up again but for whatever reason it often does. 

In addition to the single number, I will bet on a corner which includes the single number. This helps to give a few wins along the way (if you are lucky). 

Bet for a couple of hours. If you bet all day and all night the casino rake will gradually take its toll and you are sure to lose. But short term your odds are not that different from the casino. In fact, they often give free bets, drinks vouchers and incentives to get you through the door which can mean when betting £20 - £50 you are pretty much betting on a level playing field. 

Just keep betting on your single number and corner and hope you get lucky. 

Tuesday, 2 April 2019

3:15 Musselburgh Racing Tips (2nd April)

Musselburgh 2yo racing

A nice class 2 conditions race with 3 front running sorts in the field of 8 and maybe Merry Banter could do best of those 3 as its my joint 2d top rated along with the very versatile Tanasoq who usually stays on strongly at this distance but my top rated horse is LONGROOM 50/1 who usually likes to track the pacesetters and then stay on the stronger at the finish and the trainers 20% win rate here and the jockeys 18% win rate for the stable makes me hopeful that connections are expecting a big run here and will be carrying my money in an each way wager at the generous price.

Longroom 100/1 8th 

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Sunday, 31 March 2019

Funny Race Horse Names You Won't Believe

According to Weatherbys, who administer horse racing under contract from the British Horseracing Authority (BHA), naming a horse can, and should, be an enjoyable process. Some horses are named logically, according to their pedigree; Red Rum, for example, was sired by Quorum out of Mared. Some are named after something significant to their owner; Arkle and Foinavon, for example, were both originally owned by Anne Grosvenor, Duchess of Westminster and were named after twin mountains near her estate in Lochmore, Sutherland in north-west Scotland. Others are named for pure devilment, which is why Weatherbys states that all names registered are subject to approval by the BHA. 

Aside from the length of the name, which can be up to 18 characters, including spaces, the BHA imposes some fairly strict rules to prevent owners from causing confusion or offence by naming their horses inappropriately. Nevertheless, over the years the regulatory body – that is, the BHA, or its predecessor, the Jockey Club – has occasionally dropped a clanger and allowed the registration of a name that, as stated in the current BHA rules, ‘is suggestive or has a vulgar, obscene or insulting meaning’, ‘is in poor taste’ and may cause ‘offence’ and/or ‘confusion’ in the world of horse racing and beyond. Unless you have an especially sensitive disposition, the outcome has been, more often than not, just plain hilarious. 

Geespot, for example, was a bay mare trained by Dominic Ffrench Davis, won a couple of selling races at Brighton and Lingfield in 2002. Sired by Pursuit Of Love out of My Discovery she was, unquestionably, ingeniously named. Nevertheless, even taking into account a euphemistic play on ‘gee-gee’, as slang for a horse, probably erred on the side of generosity in allowing her to be so christened.

The spoonerstic Mary Hinge – the original name of a character in the Kenny Everett Television Show in the Eighties, which was rejected by the BBC, for obvious reasons – was a flagrant error on the part of the naming ‘gatekeeper’, but nonetheless graced the winners’ enclosure five times in 1993 and 1994. Owned and trained by Julie Cecil, the former wife of the late Sir Henry Cecil, the bay mare was the scourge of racecourse announcers and commentators for the majority of her 11-race career, finishing out of the first three just twice, on her last two starts. 

More recently, Two In The Pink was another, equally unbelievable, addition to the roster of dubious names and belonged to a three-time winner for Ralph J. Smith in 2013 and 2015. If you are not a fan of comedian Jimmy Carr, suffice to say that the name is short for a sexual act, known in some quarters as the ‘Shocker’; Cosmopolitan even has instructions on how to do it!

Wednesday, 20 March 2019

Racing UK Vs At The Races (Racing Pundits You Have To Press The Mute Button)

Racing pundits you have to mute
In many ways, we are lucky to have so much horse racing information. 

Both horse racing TV channels are a true source of primary data. For a small cost, you can keep up to the date with the Sport Of Kings. But here's a question. Do you love to listen to the pundits or are you like many who selectively press the MUTE button?

It might seem a little drastic, but I'm sure you or someone you know does exactly the same thing. 

In truth, it might be me rather than them (the pundits) for zapping them mid-sentence. Having a bad hair day (perhaps)? Said they hated your tip for the next race (probably)? Or you can't stand a ''certain'' presenter, pundit, tipster, trainer, an owner or even an advert in between. You pay the bill - do whatever you wish. 

I wonder from a psychological perspective, what Sigmund Freud would have to say. Although he was stumped when one of his students asked what was behind him smoking a cigar. 

He said: ''Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.'' 

Anyway, there is probably a very good reason for you pressing the deadly MUTE button. Let's face it, I don't press it on a regular basis. However, it happens most of all when watching the racing channels. I've noticed that certain presenters or pundits have me searching for the control. 

Here is a list of five who make me go deaf by choice. 

James Willoughby:

You know, I used to love the intelligence of James Willoughby. Such a knowledgable man, writer, presenter and pundit. I'm sure I could sit down and have a great conversation. I don't know what changed because I used to listen intently to every word. Then one day, I just couldn't listen anymore and pressed the mute button. His conversations just seem to go off on a tangent that all the wisdom was hidden by a need to zap him. 

John Berry:

The professor, as I call him. He trains horses, is a gifted writer and a truly intelligent man. I'm sure he could solve a Rubik's Cube blindfolded. I even like his beard and John Denver style glasses. But what I don't like is his stop-start chatter which distracts from this man of words. I just can't help but zap him after the first ten seconds. I love the man but what can I say. 

Derek Tompson: 

He is like Marmite. You either love him or hate him. I certainly don't hate him. At times he makes me smile. I'm forever waiting for his cliches. Well done ''Big Fella''. I've seen him at Great Yarmouth umpteen times. I've zapped him with the remote. I think I got him mid-race. Sorry. 

Luke Harvey & Jason Weaver:

I have to take this pair as a double act. Once again, there are times when I love everything they say. I'm delirious on this Ant & Dec of the racing world. Sometimes they morph into Morcombe & Wise. Then, in a word, everything changed. I see red and it's not just the mute button. They get zapped double quick. 

I'm sure there are plenty more. There's something about Jim McGrath which goes beyond the mute button. Once again, an informed man but there's just something about him I can't stand to listen. I really need cotton wool and a mute button with him. 

It's not all bad because some presenters are easy to listen to. Lydia Hislop and Steve Mellish. Love them. 

Oh, I remember someone else who is insanely irritating. The other year when Ruby Walsh was injured and the Racing Channel or someone had the bright idea of paying for his time. Oh dear... His voice was akin to me running my fingernails down a wellington boot and my teeth down a chalkboard. He went beyond any button (on earth).

Who do you love to hate?

Tuesday, 5 March 2019

5:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (5th March)


There's 5 of the 13 runners having been known to lead before and it could be won from the front here, Astraea has stall 1 but is better over a shorter trip, my 4th top rated is Taverner a possible pacesetter, the one that could be the one to prosper if they go off too fast is Fareeq if it can reproduce its Newcastle time here, INDIAN AFFAIR 20/1 is a front runner and stall 2 could see it gain control of the rails and then prove hard to catch, I've got PEACHEY CARNEHAN 16/1 rated 1lb higher but this front runner is in stall 11 which isn't ideal but the jockey booked to ride has a 2-7 record for this stable and hopefully 2 each way wagers will pay dividends. 

Peachy Carnehan 16/1 1st 

Indian Affair 20/1 5th

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Wednesday, 20 February 2019

5:20 Southwell Racing Tips (21st February)


As usual a class 6 race attracts the biggest field of my beloved sprints, just shows how many poor horses there is in training, but a little strange that there's only 3 front runners in this 5 furlong dash, I will concentrate on my top 3 ratings, Twentysvnthlancers looks in the grip of the official handicapper after its win 5 runs ago, Novabridge has tried 11 times before on this course without winning but it has run the odd good race here and it could make the frame but I doubt it will catch the front running ARCHIE STEVENS 16/1 if this one puts in one of its better efforts and I will have an each way bet but my stakes in this race won't be at full strength. 

Archie Stevens 50/1 Unp


A strange looking complicated race with only 6 runners and any stakes will be kept low, the top 2 horses, Always A Dream, 2nd top on a Kempton time, and Lalania, 2nd top on c/d times, could run decent races but would need to improve to beat, AVON GREEN 16/1 who is top rated using its best Kempton time but it hasn't run over this c/d before and will need to be held up for a late run at this distance, top-rated using c/d times is DREAMBOAT ANNIE 10/1 who has done its best times on turf when leading but hasn't led on the aw tracks before but has a decent chance here to lead all the way but I will go with having smallish bets on the 2 selections.

Dreamboat Annie 10/1 3rd
Avon Green 25/1 5th  

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