Saturday, 17 October 2020

That Horse Looks Hopeless - I'm Sure it Can Win!

In The Betting Shop
What is your type of bet? Perhaps you're a favourites man. You bet on the jolly like it's going out of fashion. In fact, you can't remember the last time you didn't back the horse which sits at the top of the market. 

There's nothing wrong with that. You do what you do. If it pays you are correct – if you lose you are wrong. We are talking long term. Even the best of successful gamblers appreciate they need to view their performance over a season. One well-established platform who say let's beat the bookies with OLBG via this handy link https://www.olbg.com/betting-tips/Horse_Racing/2  and make the most of your wagers on a daily basis. 

It is interesting to consider how you bet. I know for the majority this doesn't even register. You go in the bookmakers, check out the Racing Post, last three runs, looks ok, and bet. I'm not being funny, but compare to someone who knows a lot about betting it is boarding on criminal. If you can make your betting pay with that minimalistic style you are one lucky guy. Sadly, it's not possible. 

Why? Because you are looking at the same information as everyone else. When gambling there really isn't strength in numbers. You need to remove yourself from the crowd. You need to have your own perspective. A quiet approach which taps into value bets. 

Basically, you need to understand your niche. We go from horse racing in its entirety to a segment of the pie. Sure, the whole apple pie tastes sweet but just a little part can taste sweeter. Perhaps it has been sprinkled with cinnamon! 

My speciality is two-year-old horse racing. Our other contributor, Eric Winner, follows sprinters.

It's impossible to follow all racing. Why would you want to run ten marathons when you can win one and bet five times the money? You can see the logic. You will be better than others when you put more work into your niche and understand that you don't need to be the best punter on earth. You have to be a little bit better than most! 

That's why I come to horses which look pretty damn hopeless.

I can imagine what you are thinking. Why the hell do you want to do that? Because I can pretty much guarantee most people have written off it's chance. That can be a very good thing for me. Because some layer somewhere is a little greedy and keeps pushing the price from big, bigger to biggest. 

Those huge odds can relate to value. 

When considering betting on two-year-old horses it's easy for even a decent juvenile to disappoint on its first two starts. I can tell you, very few layers fear a horse that has disappointed both starts.

''Let's lay this thing as it's as slow as a snail.'' Most of these horses are – but not all. I've seen a lot of these horses run big races on their third start and a number have won. One of them at 999/1 on Betfair. Whether you bet on the favourite or the outsider, find a novel way of betting. If you follow the crowd long term you will never beat the bookies.

Friday, 28 August 2020

How to Win Playing Roulette at Grosvenor Casino Great Yarmouth

I'm sure you read this post title and thought...

One of these statements: 

What a lot of rubbish...

Tell me more...

Is it possible?

Where is Great Yarmouth? What's roulette?

For all I know, you may have had all of those thoughts in that order. Mumbo jumbo, hey. We all know that you can't win playing roulette, hey? You can't beat fixed odds because the casino is guaranteed to win long term. 

I can't see how you can win playing roulette. It's the truth. However, it's a fact that I have been to the Grosvenor Casino at Great Yarmouth at least 10 times in the last few years and I am well in profit. So why is that? What is the reason? Have I just got lucky? I think, for the most part, I have been lucky. But there may be some reason why I have increased my chances. 

Compared with all other games you can play at any UK casino, roulette gives you the best odds of winning. I think the casino edge is 2.7% which compared with the likes of pair plus on three-card poker you are a winner without trying. I think pair plus takes about 6%, which is hard work. 

Anyway, let's get back to roulette. 

I figure the only way you can win at playing roulette is by using these three variables (if you can actually call them variable):


  • Luck
  • Playing for a couple of hours
  • Betting on a single number and corner
  • Betting level stake 


Yes, you need to be lucky to win. If you are unlucky you will play and not see a number come up once. 

My approach is simple. I look to see which number has come up a couple of times in the last hour or so and bet on that religiously. There is no logic to why the number should come up again but for whatever reason it often does. 

In addition to the single number, I will bet on a corner which includes the single number. This helps to give a few wins along the way (if you are lucky). 

Bet for a couple of hours. If you bet all day and all night the casino rake will gradually take its toll and you are sure to lose. But short term your odds are not that different from the casino. In fact, they often give free bets, drinks vouchers and incentives to get you through the door which can mean when betting £20 - £50 you are pretty much betting on a level playing field. 

Just keep betting on your single number and corner and hope you get lucky. 

Wednesday, 8 July 2020

Is Gambling Stupid Simple?

What image comes to mind when you think of a gambler? 

The chances are it will be negative. The stereotype of a gambler doesn't inspire positives. 

Who do you know that gambles? Perhaps they have lived up to the seemingly natural expectation of being a loser. However, it is worth stopping for a moment to consider how we view a gamble. 

Whether you have ever placed a bet or not, you have gambled throughout your life. Each and every decision whether large or small has to some extent been a gamble. Can we ever be sure of the outcome of the most simple act? Crossing the road doesn't seem like a gamble but for the poor soul struck by a vehicle, it may have been a decision which cost their life. For that reason, I think people who say they don't gamble are naive. I would rather consider life as a gamble than not. Why? Because I am more prepared for the outcome. That doesn't mean to say I will be correct but at least I will be less ignorant. Even if it is one gamble from a million that decision may be worthy of note. 

In truth, I would not advise anyone to gamble on sports for fun. To add a little bit of interest. There is no fun in losing money. You hear people say: ''Are you betting with your head with your heart?'' As a proud football supporter, could you bet on the opposing side? 

You have probably answered the question. 

Betting so often relates to fixed odds. The spin of a roulette wheel. Long term you cannot possibly win. But betting on a skill-based sport isn't about luck. 

In his prime, Linford Christie would have been priced 1/100 against 99 per cent of the male UK population racing over 100m. 

Playing chess is a skill. 

Would you like to take on a county player when you are a beginner? You would have no chance of winning. 

Not through luck. 

Skill. 

Betting on a sport is the same. If someone knows their sport to a high standard you are a fool to think you can beat them. Nine out of ten times they would make you look inferior. That's why you need to learn your niche and hone your skills. The fun aspect of gambling is not the gamble itself. That should be mechanical, exacting and precise. Knowing your sport and appreciating your skill is the fun part. It has probably taken years to understand. It has value. It could be of huge value. 

I often find people stupidly ignorant when it comes to gambling. In the sense that they clearly know nothing at all but feel they can appreciate that it simply isn't possible to beat the bookies. 

It is like me questioning my doctor about illness because I Googled it five minutes before I entered the room. The doctor would be irritated or bemused. Rightfully so. They know what they are talking about because they have honed their skills. Strangely, they didn't just wake up one morning and think I'm a doctor. 

But that is what people are saying so often to those who gamble and win. 

It is strange how a stockbroker is viewed so differently from a gambler. They are one and the same thing. Their success or failure isn't based on their job title it is based on their success. Their success is based on their skill. This skill – without question – took years to understand. 

I'm not being funny but my skill within two-year-old horse race betting is akin to me being Linford Christie and you are the fat kid who lives down the street. That is a general average. Some kids will be fatter. Some will be thinner. Some will be smart. Some will be fitter, faster and smarter. On average, they will never know as much as me because I have trained to be the exception to the rule. 

It's something you could be good at too. But you can't be bothered or it sounds too much like hard work. 

You will not wake up one day and know more. 

That almost comical perspective of gambling success or failure is in actual fact a true reflection of life. 

When people say they don't gamble I see a naive person. Sometimes I see a complete fool. 

Perhaps betting with money is different from betting with life chances. I wouldn't see a difference. I would be more careful when betting life chances because one wrong move can equate to a lifetime of money in a split second. Make the wrong choice and you could be paying for it until the last day of your life. 

Perhaps that gamble means this is the last minute of your life. The decision to take drugs, cross the road, or anything else you can imagine. I would rather appreciate a gamble living in the here and now. The circumstance of any gamble can be turned in your favour by skill. Before you bet, learn what you need to know to be a winner. Or at the very least, to have the odds in your favour.

Wednesday, 1 April 2020

Grand National List of Winners

List of Grand National Winners
It's the 6th of April 2019. 

Time: 5:15pm 

Place: Aintree Racecourse, Liverpool. 

I'm studying the form for this year's runners and riders, searching for the best betting odds because I'm looking for a speculative bet.

The Grand National is one race that stops people in their tracks. A household institution. ''Get ready for the Grand National 2019'', are the words I hear come that exciting Saturday. My uncle Alan comes round and asks me to place a few bets for him. ''Not a problem.'' 

In preparation for my speculative bet, I search on Google for the following keywords: List of Grand National winners. Click on the link to Wikipedia and ''BOOM'' the info is at hand. Why should I research past winners? Because I want to see the winning price for the contest over the last few years. There's no lack of data as the records go back to that elusive first win of Lottery who won the inaugural race at odds of 5/1f. It's quite astounding to think that the first race was dated 1839.

From that historic day, the Grand National story has been written like a rich tapestry with covers a million honest, hard, gritty and emotional words. 

Searching the list of Grand National winners, I realise that five horses have won at odds of 100/1. 


''Perhaps my speculative bet is alive and kicking''

Is there a fighting chance we can beat the favourite? 

The last favourite to win was back in 2010 when Don't Push It prevailed. The long-awaited win for Tony McCoy and legendary trainer Jonjo O'Neill. A popular victory, particularly memorable for connections of the 10/1f. 

Interesting to note that in the last 20-years just three favourites have won. A select list including Hedge Hunter 7/1f (2004), Comply Or Die 7/1f (2008) & Don't Push It 10/1f (2010).

So 17 jollies were beaten. 

The shortest price winners over that time being 10/1. Nine winners were priced over 20/1. So that's almost an even money chance of a 20/1+ winner over this period. In fact, the last ten years have seen a number of incredibly priced successors. 

Take a look at the list:

2009 - Mon Mone 100/1 
2012 - Neptunes Collonges 33/1 
2013 - Auroras Encore 66/1
2014 - Pinea Du Re 25/1
2015 - Many Clouds 25/1 
2016 - Rule The World 33/1 

So if you fancy a big price selection don't be put off by those jolly favourite-backers. If they spout on about this, that and the other them ask them how many favourites have won in the last twenty years?

I bet odds-on they have no idea. 

When the Grand National starts, I'll be cheering for a speculative to show the way. 

Good luck. 

Monday, 24 February 2020

Saturday Evening at the Grosvenor Casino at Great Yarmouth

Grosvenor Casino Great Yarmouth I don't know about you but these winter months drag like an old girl who smokes 40 a day!

There isn't much in the way of sun, warmth or fun to be had waiting for spring to raise her head. So it's time to bring a little bit of fun into the month of March with a visit to the Grosvenor Casino at Great Yarmouth. 

In ways, Yarmouth can seem a tacky, neglected hole on the Norfolk coast. However, I love the place. It has so many memories: family holidays and going to the races with my late father, Colin. Dad never got a chance to frequent the casino down Marine Parade, but I know for a fact he would have been in his element. 

To lighten up a boring winter period we are going to spend the night at Yarmouth on the 14th March and see if lady luck rubs shoulders with the Fen Boys. To be fair, I think she is a constant companion as I have won a decent sum of money playing roulette with my boring ''watch the paint dry'' system. 

Anyway, I'll talk about that in a few minutes. 

My cousin Danny suggested we go and by all accounts, it will be a bit of a family gathering with Me, Tony, Gareth, Paul, Sue, Martin, and Dan the Man. I'm not sure if there will be any newcomers but time will tell. 

The Great thing about Yarmouth is that you can get some amazing hotel prices throughout the winter. I had intended to go to the Nelson Hotel, but couldn't get there so opted for the Embassy located on Camperdown, which is one of the best streets in the town. I'm not sure if it is Victorian or Edwardian (pretty sure it is the former) but it's an attractive street. I've stayed at Andover House Hotel, just up the road, but that is a bit pricey for a night of gambling, although I would recommend it too. Anyway, the Embassy Hotel has got our custom. We have a family room including breakfast, which costs just £50. That's about £16.70 each. I really think they should up their prices because it is worth double that. David, the manager, is a lovely man and always so polite. So we are looking forward to getting back to our regular haunt.

Dan The Man, has a single room for £20-somthing quid, with breakfast, which is bordering on criminal. 

I'll be giving the staff a tip come win, lose or draw. 

Just around the corner is a gem of a restaurant called Pamela's. It's exceptional value and an equal measure of bling and fine dining. The staff is as professional as they come and the food a pure delight. 

And we haven't even got to the casino...

The Grosvenor Casino at Great Yarmouth is well worth a visit even if you don't intend to put a chip on the table and chance your luck. This listed building makes the modern casinos look like soulless dungeons. The restaurant is literally as cheap as chips but you could be rubbing shoulders with royalty such is the elegance of the building with high ceilings, chandeliers, and an atmosphere that oozes wall-to-wall class. 

I never bet much money at the casino as it is more fun than an attempt to lose my shirt. 

I will be betting on the roulette. I simply follow a chosen single number that's come up a few times and hope it comes out again. Surprisingly it does, often. There's no logic to it and pure luck. I'm winning several hundred pounds over the years and that's what I will be doing for a couple of hours until the boredom sets in or I get fed up with some Chinese bloke laying on my back to place bets like money is going out of fashion. 

If I could place a bet that a Chinese man, woman (not child) will be playing some game at Yarmouth, I'd be a millionaire. 

Dan, Paul, Sue, and perhaps Tony will be playing 3-card poker. I can't say I like the game too much. The rake is high on pair plus and I've had a really good night on that table and still been surprised how little money I won. 

On a personal note, I wonder if Graham is there?

However, I know someone (I won't mention names) won a couple of grand in September from starting with small change. Anyway, we will be having a session come the 14th March, and go back to the casino for Sunday lunch, then back home on the train. 

If you have never been to the Grosvenor Casino I would say take a look and see what you think. 

You don't even need to bet!

Tuesday, 21 January 2020

What is Speculative Bet?

Fed up with betting the favourite every race? Sometimes you need to look a little deeper and find a bet - with a fighting chance - that is a bigger if not huge price. Speculative Bet hasn't been going long but we have achieved some remarkable results proving why is really pays to follow these selective tips. It's fair to say that we won't have selections every day but make sure you take a look at Speculative Bet because our information speaks for itself.

Enjoy this website? 

Well take a moment to visit our other blogs:

High Class Equine
Top ranked two year old horse racing blog with over 1,000,000 page views. Dedicated to giving readers daily posts with a mix of insightful articles and in-depth race analysis. 

Horse Trainer Directory
This great resource detail UK Horse Trainer Websites, Blogs, twitter & Facebook Pages. Top ranked on Google search engine, respected by trainers and readers alike, it saves you time locating information fast. Don't search the net when we have gone the extra furlong.   

Eric Winner
If you are looking for the man with the golden touch then Eric Winner will serve you well. This sprint race expert has made an impact since blogging just over a year and he churns out tips like a machine. And what times? Take a look at his big priced winner - more 20/1+ than you can shake your whip at. Exceptional work and over £3,000+ profit for a £10 level stake.

Group Horse
Our latest website and in ways more for the purist. Group Horse details two year old horses which receive top-class entries for all the big races. It highlights the best up-and-coming horses in racing and future equine stars. The entries page is updated on a daily basis and the website feature articles, trainer comments and expert knowledge. 

  

Wednesday, 8 January 2020

7:45 Kempton Racing Tips (8th January)

Kempton racing tips
KEMPTON 7.45

This an amateur riders race which multiplies the risk factor and is probably best left alone but here's my ramblings, Fluente is 4th top-rated on its best time from 2018 and didn't run here at all last year, Hart Stopper is 3rd top-rated and is usually held up for a late run, Flowers On Venus but this one might need the run for fitness but is top-rated on its best 2018 time at Lingfield, so cannot be ignored, my 2nd top-rated is WITH CAUTION 10/1 who is one of only 2 frontrunners in the race is well drawn in stall 2 and could lead all the way here but I have to admit I have no idea about the jockey so my stakes will be on the low side of things.

With Caution 16/1 Unp

See more racing tips here

Thursday, 2 January 2020

2:25 Lingfield Racing Tips (2nd January)

LINGFIELD 2.25 

EQUALLY FAST has only poor form recently and slow times over this course and distance, it has been known to lead before but I would lay it in this race. 

TOMSHALFBROTHER hasn't any course form and now ins from 4 races on the AW tracks and overall a maiden after 9 attempts and that might not change here.

ARZAAK has only slow times recently at this c/d and its form has been quite poor overall and a losing run of 13 and one I would look to lay in this race.

ROUNDABOUT MAGIC won on Tuesday and if turning out again here it has to be on my shortlist although I'm not a fan of the apprentice jockeys 0-4 record for the stable.

PINK ICEBERG I think this one might set the early pace in this race and if allowed to dictate it could do enough to make the frame but it would need to improve to keep them all at bay.

CUBAN SPIRIT hasn't any distance form and looks as though a longer trip would suit it better and I'm not sure this race will run to suit it.

ALASKAN BAY the trainer does well here with its older horses having a 21% win rate and will be staying on strongly at the business end.

STARCHANT is a maiden after 23 runs and I doubt it will change here as it's not even made the frame in 10 AW races.

PHAROH JAKE is on a losing run of 16 and hasn't shown much form lately and age may be catching up with this 12-year-old. 

SUMMARY: I think the winner will come from either Roundabout Magic if it runs again this quickly or my top-rated ALASKAN BAY 33/1 who showed a return to form might be imminent finishing 4th on its last run and has to be worth an each-way punt at such a big price.

Alaskan Bay 33/1 4th

More racing tips here

Tuesday, 31 December 2019

3:20 Lingfield Racing Tips (31st December)

LINGFIELD 3.20 

ROYAL DYNASTY may find this distance a bit too far for it.

KNOCKOUT BLOW won last time out but may struggle to stay the trip in this line-up.

BAHAMIAN HEIGHTS been woefully out of form but is a possible frontrunner.

CATHEADANS FURY capable of making the frame but maybe struggle to win this race.

KATHS LUSTRE its best c/d figure from 2018 would see it struggling to win here.

LITTLE MISS LILLY is another in the field that may struggle to stay the trip in this race.

PERFECT SYMPHONY its best Chelmsford time would give it every chance here but its only run over this c/d was a poor effort.

FALCAO is 2nd top-rated on 2019 c/d times and being a frontrunner it could go well in this race.

MERCERS is top-rated on this years and overall speed figures and the apprentice's 7lb claim could swing things even more so into its favour. 

TAWAAFOQ hasn't any recent c/d form to work with but its best Chelmsford time would put it in the mix for making the frame.

PORTO FERRO is on a losing run of 17 which isn't ideal and its best time wouldn't be good enough to even make the frame if all the rest run to their form.

MAJOR ASSAULT may need this run for fitness and its sole run here was poor. 

SUMMARY: Not a race to be betting in too heavily but I will be having an each-way punt on MERCERS 12/1 who comes out top on my figures and if the apprentice is worth their 7lb claim then that could help it even more but it's not one of my favoured riders hence why the lowish stakes.

Mercers 14/1 5th 

See More Racing Tips

Wednesday, 18 December 2019

6:45 Newcastle Racing Tips (18th December)

NEWCASTLE 6.45

I can only find 2 that have virtually no chance of winning this race and it's very tightly rated just outside my top 3 ratings so I will concentrate on my top 3 only, Poppy In The Wind is my 3rd top-rated but on a losing run of 14 which is off-putting but could still make the frame, my analysis only works on the win part of each horses data, Red Allure is well-weighted despite looking as though this isn't its favourite surface also it's still a maiden after 15 runs and the jockeys 0-11 for this stable doesn't inspire confidence, I will again be backing the topweight this time in the shape of PUSHKIN MUSEUM 10/1 who comes out top rated thanks to the time it recorded at Wolverhampton last year, the trainer has a decent 16% win rate at this course and the jockeys 1-3 record looks a positive booking. 

Pushkin Museum 80/1 Unp 

NEWCASTLE 7.15

This is probably the most competitive sprint of the day for me to analyse to a conclusion, Bugler Bob and Hassaad are my joint 4th top-rated horses and the latter might find the trip too far if they go a fast early pace, Gowanbuster is my 3rd top-rated and it could be the one to set the pace in this race, if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch, JONBOY 14/1 starts off as my top rated horse but if the jockey isn't worth their claim it would drop to 2nd top, the trainers 0-13 record is a negative while it is only the apprentices 3rd ride for this stable with one winner I'm not sure if its a positive booking or not, my original 2nd top-rated is EPEIUS 8/1 and this one will be trying to stay on strongly at the finish and I have no option other than to back the pair of them.

Epeius 9/1 6th
Jonboy 14/1 Unp

See more racing tips here