Monday, 10 February 2020

That Horse Looks Hopeless - I'm Sure it Can Win!

In The Betting Shop
What is your type of bet? Perhaps you're a favourites man. You bet on the jolly like it's going out of fashion. In fact, you can't remember the last time you didn't back the horse which sits at the top of the market. 

There's nothing wrong with that. You do what you do. If it pays you are correct – if you lose you are wrong. We are talking long term. Even the best of successful gamblers appreciate they need to view their performance over a season. One well-established platform who say let's beat the bookies with OLBG via this handy link  and make the most of your wagers on a daily basis. 

It is interesting to consider how you bet. I know for the majority this doesn't even register. You go in the bookmakers, check out the Racing Post, last three runs, looks ok, and bet. I'm not being funny, but compare to someone who knows a lot about betting it is boarding on criminal. If you can make your betting pay with that minimalistic style you are one lucky guy. Sadly, it's not possible. 

Why? Because you are looking at the same information as everyone else. When gambling there really isn't strength in numbers. You need to remove yourself from the crowd. You need to have your own perspective. A quiet approach which taps into value bets. 

Basically, you need to understand your niche. We go from horse racing in its entirety to a segment of the pie. Sure, the whole apple pie tastes sweet but just a little part can taste sweeter. Perhaps it has been sprinkled with cinnamon! 

My speciality is two-year-old horse racing. Our other contributor, Eric Winner, follows sprinters.

It's impossible to follow all racing. Why would you want to run ten marathons when you can win one and bet five times the money? You can see the logic. You will be better than others when you put more work into your niche and understand that you don't need to be the best punter on earth. You have to be a little bit better than most! 

That's why I come to horses which look pretty damn hopeless.

I can imagine what you are thinking. Why the hell do you want to do that? Because I can pretty much guarantee most people have written off it's chance. That can be a very good thing for me. Because some layer somewhere is a little greedy and keeps pushing the price from big, bigger to biggest. 

Those huge odds can relate to value. 

When considering betting on two-year-old horses it's easy for even a decent juvenile to disappoint on its first two starts. I can tell you, very few layers fear a horse that has disappointed both starts.

''Let's lay this thing as it's as slow as a snail.'' Most of these horses are – but not all. I've seen a lot of these horses run big races on their third start and a number have won. One of them at 999/1 on Betfair. Whether you bet on the favourite or the outsider, find a novel way of betting. If you follow the crowd long term you will never beat the bookies.

Tuesday, 21 January 2020

What is Speculative Bet?

Fed up with betting the favourite every race? Sometimes you need to look a little deeper and find a bet - with a fighting chance - that is a bigger if not huge price. Speculative Bet hasn't been going long but we have achieved some remarkable results proving why is really pays to follow these selective tips. It's fair to say that we won't have selections every day but make sure you take a look at Speculative Bet because our information speaks for itself.

Enjoy this website? 

Well take a moment to visit our other blogs:

High Class Equine
Top ranked two year old horse racing blog with over 1,000,000 page views. Dedicated to giving readers daily posts with a mix of insightful articles and in-depth race analysis. 

Horse Trainer Directory
This great resource detail UK Horse Trainer Websites, Blogs, twitter & Facebook Pages. Top ranked on Google search engine, respected by trainers and readers alike, it saves you time locating information fast. Don't search the net when we have gone the extra furlong.   

Eric Winner
If you are looking for the man with the golden touch then Eric Winner will serve you well. This sprint race expert has made an impact since blogging just over a year and he churns out tips like a machine. And what times? Take a look at his big priced winner - more 20/1+ than you can shake your whip at. Exceptional work and over £3,000+ profit for a £10 level stake.

Group Horse
Our latest website and in ways more for the purist. Group Horse details two year old horses which receive top-class entries for all the big races. It highlights the best up-and-coming horses in racing and future equine stars. The entries page is updated on a daily basis and the website feature articles, trainer comments and expert knowledge. 


Wednesday, 8 January 2020

7:45 Kempton Racing Tips (8th January)

Kempton racing tips

This an amateur riders race which multiplies the risk factor and is probably best left alone but here's my ramblings, Fluente is 4th top-rated on its best time from 2018 and didn't run here at all last year, Hart Stopper is 3rd top-rated and is usually held up for a late run, Flowers On Venus but this one might need the run for fitness but is top-rated on its best 2018 time at Lingfield, so cannot be ignored, my 2nd top-rated is WITH CAUTION 10/1 who is one of only 2 frontrunners in the race is well drawn in stall 2 and could lead all the way here but I have to admit I have no idea about the jockey so my stakes will be on the low side of things.

With Caution 16/1 Unp

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Thursday, 2 January 2020

2:25 Lingfield Racing Tips (2nd January)


EQUALLY FAST has only poor form recently and slow times over this course and distance, it has been known to lead before but I would lay it in this race. 

TOMSHALFBROTHER hasn't any course form and now ins from 4 races on the AW tracks and overall a maiden after 9 attempts and that might not change here.

ARZAAK has only slow times recently at this c/d and its form has been quite poor overall and a losing run of 13 and one I would look to lay in this race.

ROUNDABOUT MAGIC won on Tuesday and if turning out again here it has to be on my shortlist although I'm not a fan of the apprentice jockeys 0-4 record for the stable.

PINK ICEBERG I think this one might set the early pace in this race and if allowed to dictate it could do enough to make the frame but it would need to improve to keep them all at bay.

CUBAN SPIRIT hasn't any distance form and looks as though a longer trip would suit it better and I'm not sure this race will run to suit it.

ALASKAN BAY the trainer does well here with its older horses having a 21% win rate and will be staying on strongly at the business end.

STARCHANT is a maiden after 23 runs and I doubt it will change here as it's not even made the frame in 10 AW races.

PHAROH JAKE is on a losing run of 16 and hasn't shown much form lately and age may be catching up with this 12-year-old. 

SUMMARY: I think the winner will come from either Roundabout Magic if it runs again this quickly or my top-rated ALASKAN BAY 33/1 who showed a return to form might be imminent finishing 4th on its last run and has to be worth an each-way punt at such a big price.

Alaskan Bay 33/1 4th

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Tuesday, 31 December 2019

3:20 Lingfield Racing Tips (31st December)


ROYAL DYNASTY may find this distance a bit too far for it.

KNOCKOUT BLOW won last time out but may struggle to stay the trip in this line-up.

BAHAMIAN HEIGHTS been woefully out of form but is a possible frontrunner.

CATHEADANS FURY capable of making the frame but maybe struggle to win this race.

KATHS LUSTRE its best c/d figure from 2018 would see it struggling to win here.

LITTLE MISS LILLY is another in the field that may struggle to stay the trip in this race.

PERFECT SYMPHONY its best Chelmsford time would give it every chance here but its only run over this c/d was a poor effort.

FALCAO is 2nd top-rated on 2019 c/d times and being a frontrunner it could go well in this race.

MERCERS is top-rated on this years and overall speed figures and the apprentice's 7lb claim could swing things even more so into its favour. 

TAWAAFOQ hasn't any recent c/d form to work with but its best Chelmsford time would put it in the mix for making the frame.

PORTO FERRO is on a losing run of 17 which isn't ideal and its best time wouldn't be good enough to even make the frame if all the rest run to their form.

MAJOR ASSAULT may need this run for fitness and its sole run here was poor. 

SUMMARY: Not a race to be betting in too heavily but I will be having an each-way punt on MERCERS 12/1 who comes out top on my figures and if the apprentice is worth their 7lb claim then that could help it even more but it's not one of my favoured riders hence why the lowish stakes.

Mercers 14/1 5th 

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Wednesday, 18 December 2019

6:45 Newcastle Racing Tips (18th December)


I can only find 2 that have virtually no chance of winning this race and it's very tightly rated just outside my top 3 ratings so I will concentrate on my top 3 only, Poppy In The Wind is my 3rd top-rated but on a losing run of 14 which is off-putting but could still make the frame, my analysis only works on the win part of each horses data, Red Allure is well-weighted despite looking as though this isn't its favourite surface also it's still a maiden after 15 runs and the jockeys 0-11 for this stable doesn't inspire confidence, I will again be backing the topweight this time in the shape of PUSHKIN MUSEUM 10/1 who comes out top rated thanks to the time it recorded at Wolverhampton last year, the trainer has a decent 16% win rate at this course and the jockeys 1-3 record looks a positive booking. 

Pushkin Museum 80/1 Unp 


This is probably the most competitive sprint of the day for me to analyse to a conclusion, Bugler Bob and Hassaad are my joint 4th top-rated horses and the latter might find the trip too far if they go a fast early pace, Gowanbuster is my 3rd top-rated and it could be the one to set the pace in this race, if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch, JONBOY 14/1 starts off as my top rated horse but if the jockey isn't worth their claim it would drop to 2nd top, the trainers 0-13 record is a negative while it is only the apprentices 3rd ride for this stable with one winner I'm not sure if its a positive booking or not, my original 2nd top-rated is EPEIUS 8/1 and this one will be trying to stay on strongly at the finish and I have no option other than to back the pair of them.

Epeius 9/1 6th
Jonboy 14/1 Unp

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Thursday, 21 November 2019

6:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips (21st November)


Down to class 6 here, George Dryden has a time from 2018 that would make it 2nd top-rated but hasn't really been in form lately and the jockeys 0-19 record for the stable makes me think its not ready to bounce back to form here, Broughton Excels is well weighted on its best times but still only good enough to make it my 3rd top-rated, my top rated on 2019 times is *DARING GUEST 9/1 who likes to stay on strongly at the finish and could get a good tow into the race with a possible frontrunner being drawn next door in stall 10. 

* NR


With 3 possible frontrunners this should be a true run race and I'm hoping my selection can lead all the way here but my stakes won't be at full power, Nampara in stall 1 and Tan are my joint 3rd top-rated horses and the latter has been known to lead but only usually if nothing else wants to, Time To Reason is 2nd best and this one likes to track the pace and then stay on strongly at the finish but if RED STRIPES 11/1 leads here from stall 6 it could prove hard to catch and the apprentices 7lb claim could swing things even more into its favour and as usual if the price is big enough I would say to go with an each-way wager.

Red Stripes 11/1 8th

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Monday, 21 October 2019

5:30 Southwell Racing Tips (21st October)


Only 10 runners but there isnt much to work with some of the lightly raced sorts in the race and 2 possible flies in the ointment could be Cox Bazar and Attys Edge so the betting could be the clue to their chances in this race but im hoping they wont be involved with the finish, of my top 4 ratings for just 2019, 3 of them have losing runs of 10 or more race which is always off putting but it doesnt mean they cannot run well, Tadaany is 4th top rated and likes to track the leaders, Classic Pursuit is my 3rd top rating and usually stays on at this trip as though further would suit it better, Arzaak is 2nd top rated and the trainer has a decent 18% strike rate here with their older horses but most of my money will be riding on BLUELLA 12/1 who is another that should be staying on strongly at the finish and the apprentices 7lb claim pushes it into top spot on this year's speed figures and the trainers win ratio at this course with the older horses is 21%, I will possibly have to cover bets Arzaak and Classic Pursuit because they have faster times from 2018. 

Bluella 16/1 5th 

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Thursday, 17 October 2019

Is Gambling Stupid Simple?

What image comes to mind when you think of a gambler? 

The chances are it will be negative. The stereotype of a gambler doesn't inspire positives. 

Who do you know that gambles? Perhaps they have lived up to the seemingly natural expectation of being a loser. However, it is worth stopping for a moment to consider how we view a gamble. 

Whether you have ever placed a bet or not, you have gambled throughout your life. Each and every decision whether large or small has to some extent been a gamble. Can we ever be sure of the outcome of the most simple act? Crossing the road doesn't seem like a gamble but for the poor soul struck by a vehicle, it may have been a decision which cost their life. For that reason, I think people who say they don't gamble are naive. I would rather consider life as a gamble than not. Why? Because I am more prepared for the outcome. That doesn't mean to say I will be correct but at least I will be less ignorant. Even if it is one gamble from a million that decision may be worthy of note. 

In truth, I would not advise anyone to gamble on sports for fun. To add a little bit of interest. There is no fun in losing money. You hear people say: ''Are you betting with your head with your heart?'' As a proud football supporter, could you bet on the opposing side? 

You have probably answered the question. 

Betting so often relates to fixed odds. The spin of a roulette wheel. Long term you cannot possibly win. But betting on a skill-based sport isn't about luck. 

In his prime, Linford Christie would have been priced 1/100 against 99 per cent of the male UK population racing over 100m. 

Playing chess is a skill. 

Would you like to take on a county player when you are a beginner? You would have no chance of winning. 

Not through luck. 


Betting on a sport is the same. If someone knows their sport to a high standard you are a fool to think you can beat them. Nine out of ten times they would make you look inferior. That's why you need to learn your niche and hone your skills. The fun aspect of gambling is not the gamble itself. That should be mechanical, exacting and precise. Knowing your sport and appreciating your skill is the fun part. It has probably taken years to understand. It has value. It could be of huge value. 

I often find people stupidly ignorant when it comes to gambling. In the sense that they clearly know nothing at all but feel they can appreciate that it simply isn't possible to beat the bookies. 

It is like me questioning my doctor about illness because I Googled it five minutes before I entered the room. The doctor would be irritated or bemused. Rightfully so. They know what they are talking about because they have honed their skills. Strangely, they didn't just wake up one morning and think I'm a doctor. 

But that is what people are saying so often to those who gamble and win. 

It is strange how a stockbroker is viewed so differently from a gambler. They are one and the same thing. Their success or failure isn't based on their job title it is based on their success. Their success is based on their skill. This skill – without question – took years to understand. 

I'm not being funny but my skill within two-year-old horse race betting is akin to me being Linford Christie and you are the fat kid who lives down the street. That is a general average. Some kids will be fatter. Some will be thinner. Some will be smart. Some will be fitter, faster and smarter. On average, they will never know as much as me because I have trained to be the exception to the rule. 

It's something you could be good at too. But you can't be bothered or it sounds too much like hard work. 

You will not wake up one day and know more. 

That almost comical perspective of gambling success or failure is in actual fact a true reflection of life. 

When people say they don't gamble I see a naive person. Sometimes I see a complete fool. 

Perhaps betting with money is different from betting with life chances. I wouldn't see a difference. I would be more careful when betting life chances because one wrong move can equate to a lifetime of money in a split second. Make the wrong choice and you could be paying for it until the last day of your life. 

Perhaps that gamble means this is the last minute of your life. The decision to take drugs, cross the road, or anything else you can imagine. I would rather appreciate a gamble living in the here and now. The circumstance of any gamble can be turned in your favour by skill. Before you bet, learn what you need to know to be a winner. Or at the very least, to have the odds in your favour.

Saturday, 5 October 2019

Why Betting at Speculative Odds Gives Punters a Winning Edge

Red Rum was a favourite in the Grand National 1974
My uncle was a favourite backer. 

He loved his racing but it kind of saddened me to think he would never have a big priced winner. That 33/1 shot, which clambered home by a nose, would never be part of his conversation over a pint. The winners came thick and fast but he was never in profit. He was the reason for the post I wrote: He's Backed Every Favourite Since 1973

But who is to say betting on the favourite is wrong? If you enjoy going to Great Yarmouth racecourse you may well have a fighting chance of winning money as it is very much a favourites track. 

Each to their own. 

From betting on two-year-old horses for decades I have learnt a few things. The act of betting isn't something you should do for fun. True, the majority of punters bet for recreation. Even though they want to win, their actions don't mirror this what should be their focus. I rarely bet at odds below 11/4. I would never say never because the true marker of a talented gambler is knowing when to bet to win long term. Over a short period of time, even the best gambler can lose. Very few punters can avoid losing runs although, to be fair, if you bet selectively you should keep a steady pace rather than the ups and downs of those dreaded peaks (the good part) and troughs (shock horror). A favourite can be a great bet. It is crazy to say I would never bet odds-on even though my general assessment would state this is (and probably should be) a rare bet. It is all about value. And, yes, even a horse priced 1/10f can be value. 

But what about speculative bets?  How do they figure in your betting? Have you ever had a 33/1 winner? 

If you never bet on a big price horse you will never have a big priced winner. It's stating the obvious but it is true. 

When looking through the racing results have you noticed that every favourite wins every race? 

No. Becuase they don't. Mingled between the favourites which may bookend a card, there are horses winning at all odds. 

The Grand National has seen five 100/1 winners over the years. 

have found the day my betting bank jumped up significantly it is when one of those ''no-hopers'' find their way to the winner's enclosure. 

£50 on a 20/1, and a lovely £1,000 bumps it up nicely. My brother has seen a few exceptional betting days where he won £4,000 for a bet of £20. Yes, the horse won on debut at odds of 200/1. This came from betting on the exchanges. I think the filly [Puggy] was priced 50/1 or 66/1 with the bookmakers. 

To win at gambling you have to know that little more than the rest. The good thing about betting on outsiders is that you are bucking the trend of the crowd. That in itself is a wise move when it comes to gambling. 

If you are a favourites man then you are far from wrong in your thinking if your betting pays. But take note that not every favourite wins and that big priced winner could have been yours if you had been looking in the right direction.