Saturday, 5 October 2019

Why Betting at Speculative Odds Gives Punters a Winning Edge

Red Rum was a favourite in the Grand National 1974
My uncle was a favourite backer. 

He loved his racing but it kind of saddened me to think he would never have a big priced winner. That 33/1 shot, which clambered home by a nose, would never be part of his conversation over a pint. The winners came thick and fast but he was never in profit. He was the reason for the post I wrote: He's Backed Every Favourite Since 1973

But who is to say betting on the favourite is wrong? If you enjoy going to Great Yarmouth racecourse you may well have a fighting chance of winning money as it is very much a favourites track. 

Each to their own. 

From betting on two-year-old horses for decades I have learnt a few things. The act of betting isn't something you should do for fun. True, the majority of punters bet for recreation. Even though they want to win, their actions don't mirror this what should be their focus. I rarely bet at odds below 11/4. I would never say never because the true marker of a talented gambler is knowing when to bet to win long term. Over a short period of time, even the best gambler can lose. Very few punters can avoid losing runs although, to be fair, if you bet selectively you should keep a steady pace rather than the ups and downs of those dreaded peaks (the good part) and troughs (shock horror). A favourite can be a great bet. It is crazy to say I would never bet odds-on even though my general assessment would state this is (and probably should be) a rare bet. It is all about value. And, yes, even a horse priced 1/10f can be value. 

But what about speculative bets?  How do they figure in your betting? Have you ever had a 33/1 winner? 

If you never bet on a big price horse you will never have a big priced winner. It's stating the obvious but it is true. 

When looking through the racing results have you noticed that every favourite wins every race? 

No. Becuase they don't. Mingled between the favourites which may bookend a card, there are horses winning at all odds. 

The Grand National has seen five 100/1 winners over the years. 

have found the day my betting bank jumped up significantly it is when one of those ''no-hopers'' find their way to the winner's enclosure. 

£50 on a 20/1, and a lovely £1,000 bumps it up nicely. My brother has seen a few exceptional betting days where he won £4,000 for a bet of £20. Yes, the horse won on debut at odds of 200/1. This came from betting on the exchanges. I think the filly [Puggy] was priced 50/1 or 66/1 with the bookmakers. 

To win at gambling you have to know that little more than the rest. The good thing about betting on outsiders is that you are bucking the trend of the crowd. That in itself is a wise move when it comes to gambling. 

If you are a favourites man then you are far from wrong in your thinking if your betting pays. But take note that not every favourite wins and that big priced winner could have been yours if you had been looking in the right direction. 

Tuesday, 17 September 2019

8:30 Newcastle Racing Tips (17th September)


A full complement of 14 runners here but betting wise I won't be going in too heavily especially with a few 3-year-olds that could improve without warning and I've only got 6 runners with a recorded speed figure, Groundworker won last time out and comes out 4th top here while Someone Exciting who also won last time out is 2nd top here so both of them could go well here while in tip-top form, the topweight Arnold comes out 3rd best so it could make the frame but I'm going to have a few pennies on DEEDS NOT WORDS 25/1 and it will be pennies, it likes to track the leaders and then stay on stoutly at the finish but its on a losing sequence of 12 and the booked jockeys 0-31 is also off-putting but it could be worth a small each-way punt.

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Thursday, 12 September 2019

4:20 Doncaster Racing Tips (12th September)

DONCASTER 4.20 (8.1) 

The going at Doncaster certainly wasn't good to firm on Wednesday despite what the official going report said so I'm hoping it dries out somewhat before today's (Thursday) racing starts. With 17 runners this race will be hard to solve, topweight Poyle Vinnie is 3rd best on my figures but it isn't at ease if there's a fast early pace, Lucky Beggar is well-weighted and comes out 2nd best but this one seems to need genuine g/f ground to show its best, the early pace could come from The Armed Man but I doubt it will be in front on the line and one that should be staying on strongly at the finish is MUJASSAM 20/1 and this one might hopefully be worth a small each-way wager in this race. 

Mujasaam 33/1 9th 

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Saturday, 7 September 2019

5:05 Ascot Racing Tips (7th September)

Ascot horse racing tips
ASCOT 5.05 (7.2)

If they all run there will be 4 places for an each way bet and ive got it narrowed down to 2 that could feasibly win this race in Blue De Vega and Texting and they are not far behind the 4 that I will concentrate on, Moonraker is my original top rated but it does find the distance a bit too short unless theres a fast early pace so this race might not be run to suit, Royal Birth is being ridden by a 7lb claiming apprentice which is the same with all of my top 3 ratings, and this one could make the frame and maybe worth an each way punt at a decent price, Grandfather Tom is in cracking form but will be one of the favourites but could go close but im going to stick my neck out and go with the 3-year-old THEGREATESTSHOWMAN 14/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and in stall 10 it looks to drawn next door to Heritage the one that looks a good candidate to take up the pace setting role so it could get a good tow into the race and then have the first crack at the leader and stay on the stronger at the finish.

Thegreatestshowman 14/1 4th

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Friday, 6 September 2019

4:40 Ascot Racing Tips (6th September)

Eric Winner's Secret Tips
ASCOT 4.40 (7.2) 

There looks to be plenty of early pace in this race so it should be a true run affair, there is a few 3-year-olds or relatively lightly raced sorts that could improve but lets hope that's not today and maybe Total Commitment will make others better value that they should be, the race it won at Newmarket was a very slow affair so not 100% sure the form is that good but if its a rapidly improving sort it could scoot in again but I will be going against it, Equiano Springs could go well from those that like to be at the front of the field as could Doc Sportello, Lightning Charlie and A Sure Welcome, Big Lachie and Cent Flying have good speed figures but this looks a harder race for them and my money will be riding on MIRACLE OF MEDINAH 25/1 who likes to track the pacesetters and then stay on resolutely and I'm hoping the apprentices 7lb claim can further swing things in its favour and could be worth an each-way punt. 

Miracle Of Medinah 25/1 5th

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Wednesday, 28 August 2019

5:25 Catterick Racing Tips (28th August)

CATTERICK 5.25 (8.4) 

Speed figure wise this looks a good race for a class 5 affair and I've found 4 runners of interest, I backed Naadirr last time out when it finished 2nd but I doubt it will as much value this time out and it has to overcome a losing run of 11, Amazing Grazing is on a losing run of 17 and if there's a fast early on an undulating course like this one it can struggle to stay the distance, Lucky Beggar recorded a fast time at Doncaster earlier this year but might not be as at home on this course, my money will be riding on SPIRIT OF WEDZA 10/1 who likes this type of course and so does the trainer who has an over 30% win rate at this course and the 7lb apprentice has a reasonable 15% win rate on this stables older horses and it has been known to lead before and there's not much else known early pace in this race so I'm hoping it leads from start to finish to get back to winning ways.

Spirit Of Wedza 20/1 7th

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Wednesday, 21 August 2019

3:45 Carlisle Racing Tips (21st August)

Carlisle horse racing tips
CARLISLE 3.45 (7.7)

For a class 4 race this doesn't look the greatest especially with quite a few unexposed types which always muddies the waters and any stakes are automatically dropped to a lower level but the topweight GRACIOUS JOHN 11/1 has a time from Haydock last year that puts it quite a few spots clear and this is a dropped in class to its usual runs and will be carrying some of my hard-earned dosh and at the price it will be in the shape of an each-way wager. 

Gracious John 12/1 5th 

BATH 5.15 

This looks a quite competitive affair and there's 3 front running types so it should be a true run affair, King Crimson 4/1 is my 3rd top-rated so could do best of the frontrunners and could make the frame, Storm Melody 8/1 comes out 2nd best and this one likes to track the leaders before keeping on strongly at the finish but I do have NAADIRR 10/1 as my top rated and this one likes to be held up for a late run and this race could be run to suit its style and with a clear run could get back to winning ways here, I will be having a bet on all of my top 3 ratings but tilted in favour of my top-rated selection.

Naadirr 10/1 2nd 

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Friday, 9 August 2019

8:05 Chelmsford Racing Tips (9th August)


In this race one near the bottom Papa Delta 6/1 is capable of running a fast time but usually in one class lower races, the only known front runner is Poeta Brasileiro 4/1 joint-favourite but it would need to improve on its only run over this c/d and is held by the topweight Zapper Cass and the time that day was on the slow side so it makes it look poor value in my opinion, Dark Side Dream 20/1 would be competitive on its best time from 2018 but hasn't shown much so far this year but could be a good each-way punt if it does spring back to form, Daring Guest 13/2 is another that could be thereabouts at the finish if reproducing its best time but my money will be riding on DESERT FOX 10/1 hoping it can get a clear run when it matters and stay on the strongest at the finish and at the price it has to be an each-way wager. 

Desert Fox 10/1 2nd 

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Wednesday, 7 August 2019

5:15 Yarmouth Racing Tips (7th August)

Great Yarmouth horse racing Tips
YARMOUTH 5.15 (7.4)

An eight runner race with 2 that like to lead and Haveoneyerself is one of these leaders and my 3rd top-rated so could go well from the front, the topweight Perfect Charm has won its last 2 races and carries a 12lb penalty here before it gets a new official handicap rating it should go well while its in form but my money will be on BRONZE BEAU 9/1 who is my top-rated using this years times and has a 4lb higher rating from 2018 and it could prove very hard to catch if getting to the front and at the price and as long as all 8 runners take part I will be having a decent each-way wager. 

Bronze Beau 9/1 2nd 

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Tuesday, 6 August 2019

4:10 Catterick Racing Tips (6th August)

CATTERICK 4.10 Div2 

Division 2 is even worse if that was possible but again I've found 3 with recorded times Cupids Arrow is 3rd top but its time was recorded this year at Thirsk in top spot overall is Someone Exciting who did its best time last year at Redcar but the apprentice jockey booked is 1-18 for this stable which doesn't inspire any confidence and it would only be 2nd top-rated without the 5lb claim so I will treat it as a negative which will mean me having a small wager on B FIFTY TWO 10/1 who is a hold up type and should be trying to stay on at the finish but the losing run of 24 is limiting the strength of my stake as is the jockeys 0-15 for this stable.

B Fifty Two 10/1 1st

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