Speculative Bet
Not every favourite wins!
Monday 9 September 2024
Exploring Gambling Venues in Great Yarmouth
Tuesday 6 August 2024
That Horse Looks Hopeless - I'm Sure it Can Win!
There's nothing wrong with that. You do what you do. If it pays you are correct – if you lose you are wrong. We are talking long term. Even the best of successful gamblers appreciate they need to view their performance over a season. One well-established platform who say let's beat the bookies with OLBG via this handy link https://www.olbg.com/betting-tips/Horse_Racing/2 and make the most of your wagers on a daily basis.
It is interesting to consider how you bet. I know for the majority this doesn't even register. You go in the bookmakers, check out the Racing Post, last three runs, looks ok, and bet. I'm not being funny, but compare to someone who knows a lot about betting it is boarding on criminal. If you can make your betting pay with that minimalistic style you are one lucky guy. Sadly, it's not possible.
Why? Because you are looking at the same information as everyone else. When gambling there really isn't strength in numbers. You need to remove yourself from the crowd. You need to have your own perspective. A quiet approach which taps into value bets.
Basically, you need to understand your niche. We go from horse racing in its entirety to a segment of the pie. Sure, the whole apple pie tastes sweet but just a little part can taste sweeter. Perhaps it has been sprinkled with cinnamon!
My speciality is two-year-old horse racing. Our other contributor, Eric Winner, follows sprinters.
It's impossible to follow all racing. Why would you want to run ten marathons when you can win one and bet five times the money? You can see the logic. You will be better than others when you put more work into your niche and understand that you don't need to be the best punter on earth. You have to be a little bit better than most!
That's why I come to horses which look pretty damn hopeless.
I can imagine what you are thinking. Why the hell do you want to do that? Because I can pretty much guarantee most people have written off it's chance. That can be a very good thing for me. Because some layer somewhere is a little greedy and keeps pushing the price from big, bigger to biggest.
Those huge odds can relate to value.
When considering betting on two-year-old horses it's easy for even a decent juvenile to disappoint on its first two starts. I can tell you, very few layers fear a horse that has disappointed both starts.
''Let's lay this thing as it's as slow as a snail.'' Most of these horses are – but not all. I've seen a lot of these horses run big races on their third start and a number have won. One of them at 999/1 on Betfair. Whether you bet on the favourite or the outsider, find a novel way of betting. If you follow the crowd long term you will never beat the bookies.
Sunday 4 August 2024
Is Gambling Stupid Simple?
The chances are it will be negative. The stereotype of a gambler doesn't inspire positives.
Who do you know that gambles? Perhaps they have lived up to the seemingly natural expectation of being a loser. However, it is worth stopping for a moment to consider how we view a gamble.
Whether you have ever placed a bet or not, you have gambled throughout your life. Each and every decision whether large or small has to some extent been a gamble. Can we ever be sure of the outcome of the most simple act? Crossing the road doesn't seem like a gamble but for the poor soul struck by a vehicle, it may have been a decision which cost their life. For that reason, I think people who say they don't gamble are naive. I would rather consider life as a gamble than not. Why? Because I am more prepared for the outcome. That doesn't mean to say I will be correct but at least I will be less ignorant. Even if it is one gamble from a million that decision may be worthy of note.
In truth, I would not advise anyone to gamble on sports for fun. To add a little bit of interest. There is no fun in losing money. You hear people say: ''Are you betting with your head with your heart?'' As a proud football supporter, could you bet on the opposing side?
You have probably answered the question.
Betting so often relates to fixed odds. The spin of a roulette wheel. Long term you cannot possibly win. But betting on a skill-based sport isn't about luck.
In his prime, Linford Christie would have been priced 1/100 against 99 per cent of the male UK population racing over 100m.
Playing chess is a skill.
Would you like to take on a county player when you are a beginner? You would have no chance of winning.
Not through luck.
Skill.
Betting on a sport is the same. If someone knows their sport to a high standard you are a fool to think you can beat them. Nine out of ten times they would make you look inferior. That's why you need to learn your niche and hone your skills. The fun aspect of gambling is not the gamble itself. That should be mechanical, exacting and precise. Knowing your sport and appreciating your skill is the fun part. It has probably taken years to understand. It has value. It could be of huge value.
I often find people stupidly ignorant when it comes to gambling. In the sense that they clearly know nothing at all but feel they can appreciate that it simply isn't possible to beat the bookies.
It is like me questioning my doctor about illness because I Googled it five minutes before I entered the room. The doctor would be irritated or bemused. Rightfully so. They know what they are talking about because they have honed their skills. Strangely, they didn't just wake up one morning and think I'm a doctor.
But that is what people are saying so often to those who gamble and win.
It is strange how a stockbroker is viewed so differently from a gambler. They are one and the same thing. Their success or failure isn't based on their job title it is based on their success. Their success is based on their skill. This skill – without question – took years to understand.
I'm not being funny but my skill within two-year-old horse race betting is akin to me being Linford Christie and you are the fat kid who lives down the street. That is a general average. Some kids will be fatter. Some will be thinner. Some will be smart. Some will be fitter, faster and smarter. On average, they will never know as much as me because I have trained to be the exception to the rule.
It's something you could be good at too. But you can't be bothered or it sounds too much like hard work.
You will not wake up one day and know more.
That almost comical perspective of gambling success or failure is in actual fact a true reflection of life.
When people say they don't gamble I see a naive person. Sometimes I see a complete fool.
Perhaps betting with money is different from betting with life chances. I wouldn't see a difference. I would be more careful when betting life chances because one wrong move can equate to a lifetime of money in a split second. Make the wrong choice and you could be paying for it until the last day of your life.
Perhaps that gamble means this is the last minute of your life. The decision to take drugs, cross the road, or anything else you can imagine. I would rather appreciate a gamble living in the here and now. The circumstance of any gamble can be turned in your favour by skill. Before you bet, learn what you need to know to be a winner. Or at the very least, to have the odds in your favour.
Sunday 21 July 2024
Is Horse Trainer Form Important?
Having followed two-year-old horse racing for over 30 years I've learned a few things. Those little gems of wisdom which may not seem so interesting. However, after the race, you realise there is more to this racing game than meets the eye.
I always remember one racing pundit saying that stable form wasn't important. He had some kind of fuzzy logic on the subject which may have held a grain of truth. However, I think if you follow a stable that is out of form then you will bet loser after loser.
Any punter worth their salt will make sure they use UK online bookmakers free bets as it helps keep you ahead of the game and those dastardly bookmakers.
Following this season's two-year-old horse racing I've noted the trainers who are in flying form and those others who are simply struggling to find a winner. The difference between trainers is marked. And if you have any sense, you will be following a stable that's hit a purple patch. As I say to my gambling friends: 'You're not trying to climb a mountain.'
Just find a winner!
Trust me, trying to tip a winner on a trainer out of form is like being stranded in the Alps, you're only friend some goat who lives on a cliff edge.
One major factor is that a trainer with many winning two-year-olds knows what it takes to win a race. In truth, if a horse achieves a certain level of ability it is likely to win a race. A trainer can use form lines to select certain races or horses who they feel they can beat. This is much more difficult for trainers who have a small number of two-year-olds or they have a string which is limited in ability.
You may be thinking this isn't true but if you follow ten stables you will find those with winning horses continue to win. It is as though they have the Midas Touch. This season's star trainers include Clive Cox. He has been in excellent form all season and I can bet he will continue to follow in that rich vein of form.
Compare him to James Tate. Not only has his number of juveniles been depleted but the form of his youngsters has been poor compared to previous years.
If you know little about horse racing, I would suggest you follow a stable that is in form because they are literally hot property. Keep away from those trainers on the cold list.
Photo JC 2024
Friday 28 June 2024
Saturday Evening at the Grosvenor Casino at Great Yarmouth
There isn't much in the way of sun, warmth or fun to be had waiting for spring to raise her head. So it's time to bring a little bit of fun into the month of March with a visit to the Grosvenor Casino at Great Yarmouth.
In ways, Yarmouth can seem a tacky, neglected hole on the Norfolk coast. However, I love the place. It has so many memories: family holidays and going to the races with my late father, Colin. Dad never got a chance to frequent the casino down Marine Parade, but I know for a fact he would have been in his element.
To lighten up a boring winter period we are going to spend the night at Yarmouth on the 14th March and see if lady luck rubs shoulders with the Fen Boys. To be fair, I think she is a constant companion as I have won a decent sum of money playing roulette with my boring ''watch the paint dry'' system.
Anyway, I'll talk about that in a few minutes.
My cousin Danny suggested we go and by all accounts, it will be a bit of a family gathering with Me, Tony, Gareth, Paul, Sue, Martin, and Dan the Man. I'm not sure if there will be any newcomers but time will tell.
The Great thing about Yarmouth is that you can get some amazing hotel prices throughout the winter. I had intended to go to the Nelson Hotel, but couldn't get there so opted for the Embassy located on Camperdown, which is one of the best streets in the town. I'm not sure if it is Victorian or Edwardian (pretty sure it is the former) but it's an attractive street. I've stayed at Andover House Hotel, just up the road, but that is a bit pricey for a night of gambling, although I would recommend it too. Anyway, the Embassy Hotel has got our custom. We have a family room including breakfast, which costs just £50. That's about £16.70 each. I really think they should up their prices because it is worth double that. David, the manager, is a lovely man and always so polite. So we are looking forward to getting back to our regular haunt.
Dan The Man, has a single room for £20-somthing quid, with breakfast, which is bordering on criminal.
I'll be giving the staff a tip come win, lose or draw.
Just around the corner is a gem of a restaurant called Pamela's. It's exceptional value and an equal measure of bling and fine dining. The staff is as professional as they come and the food a pure delight.
And we haven't even got to the casino...
The Grosvenor Casino at Great Yarmouth is well worth a visit even if you don't intend to put a chip on the table and chance your luck. This listed building makes the modern casinos look like soulless dungeons. The restaurant is literally as cheap as chips but you could be rubbing shoulders with royalty such is the elegance of the building with high ceilings, chandeliers, and an atmosphere that oozes wall-to-wall class.
I never bet much money at the casino as it is more fun than an attempt to lose my shirt.
I will be betting on the roulette. I simply follow a chosen single number that's come up a few times and hope it comes out again. Surprisingly it does, often. There's no logic to it and pure luck. I'm winning several hundred pounds over the years and that's what I will be doing for a couple of hours until the boredom sets in or I get fed up with some Chinese bloke laying on my back to place bets like money is going out of fashion.
If I could place a bet that a Chinese man, woman (not child) will be playing some game at Yarmouth, I'd be a millionaire.
Dan, Paul, Sue, and perhaps Tony will be playing 3-card poker. I can't say I like the game too much. The rake is high on pair plus and I've had a really good night on that table and still been surprised how little money I won.
On a personal note, I wonder if Graham is there?
However, I know someone (I won't mention names) won a couple of grand in September from starting with small change. Anyway, we will be having a session come the 14th March, and go back to the casino for Sunday lunch, then back home on the train.
If you have never been to the Grosvenor Casino I would say take a look and see what you think.
You don't even need to bet!
Tuesday 11 June 2024
Can Poker Players Beat The Best Computers Using Artificial Intelligence Like Libratus?
Tuesday 21 May 2024
The Stereotypical Gambler: Fact Or Fiction?
The stereotypical image of a gambler often conjures up a specific set of characteristics: a disheveled man, sitting in a smoky casino, frantically throwing dice or pressing buttons on a slot machine, driven by an uncontrollable urge to win big or lose it all. This image, while deeply ingrained in popular culture, offers a simplistic and somewhat misleading portrayal of the complex reality of gambling and those who engage in it.
Thursday 16 May 2024
Why Is Betting on Horse Racing Different to the Stock Exchange?
Friday 9 February 2024
Can People Make a Living from Playing Poker?
Poker is a popular card game that has gained a lot of attention over the years. Many people play poker for fun or as a hobby, but some players take it more seriously and wonder if they can make a living from playing poker. The answer is yes, it is possible to make a living from playing poker, but it requires a lot of dedication, hard work, and a bit of luck.Our tribute to Devilfish, Dave Ulliott, a true legend of poker. #RIPDevilfish http://t.co/hbEzIgyRsW pic.twitter.com/o29rZOXNpg
— Students of Poker (@StudentsOfPoker) April 9, 2015