Wednesday, 27 May 2015

2:50 Haydock (28th May) Speculative Bet

A EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 6f on good going. Ten two-year-olds take part: four raced and a selection of debutantes from leading trainers. Speculative Bet is all about searching for value and that means we often have to take on hot-shot favourites. In many respects that is the case with today's tip. If placing a bet, instead of betting each-way I would have two singles - one being the favourite Ring Of Truth who will be a tough nut to crack. The other juvenile is Lady Wulfruna 25/1 trained by Alan McCabe. 

This chestnut daughter of Dutch Art is a cheap breeze-up purchase at just £5,000. The main reason I am interested in this filly is that she was fancied in the betting on debut at Beverley over the minimum trip. In previous years this has been a very good indicator to ability in this stable although so far this year three juveniles have been fancied and all disappointed to some degree. This is the first to make its second start so it will be a tester to see if they have any ability or whether the string is limited. This can often catch out stables early season as they learn the truth about their general standard of horse.

This April foal was very slow from the stalls on debut but showed a glimmer of hope running on in the closing stages but never pressed. It is encouraging Frankie Dettori takes the ride. She doesn't look the biggest of horses and it might be a tall order to beat what could be a classy type in the favourite. However, at odd of 16/1+ it is worthy of consideration. I wouldn't be surprised if this youngster was backed so that might be an angle especially if touching huge prices on the exchanges [30/1+ available]. I'd have a bet on Ring Of Truth & Lady Wulfruna. 

Ring Of Truth 1/1 (adv) 1st
Lady Wulfruna 25/1 Unp