Wednesday, 3 June 2015

2:00 Hamilton - Speculative Bet (4th June)

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 4y on good to soft going. Speculative Bet is all about backing horses at big prices and oddly that brings a favourite into our consideration today. Risk Adjusted is a fair two-year-old trained by Ann Duffield and unlucky not to have won with three placed efforts - runner-up on all three starts. This Irish son of Bushranger has been fancied to go well each time and a good-looking juvenile. He is priced 2/1 to take this race but I will be banking on much bigger odds but still with a favourite's chance. How? Well, even on softish going this bay colt is likely to be struggling for pace, especially if First Bombardment comes back to life after a very lackluster performance at Catterick. I think Risk Adjusted could look so flat footed that he could actually touch much bigger odds in-running. Obviously, you need to bet on the exchanges to make this bet happen and you may need to hold your breath at some point and scream obscenities at the TV but I'd put a bet up in-running at 10/1 and wait, wait and wait some more and see if the bet gets taken and then - fingers crossed - he runs on very much as seen at Ripon but this time win. That's the gamble. In stark contrast, I would lay First Bombardment at huge odds-on [1.05] and hope he looks like a certainty and stops in his tracks. It's not the most conventional of bets but I can see both horses running to order. The only drawback with Risk Adjusted is that he has had a few hard races which can take their toll and some horses do regress. However, he is a strong juvenile and I would give this bet a go. 

Risk Adjusted 7/4 1st (never touched the big odds in-running)