I think a lot of people will dismiss this race because of the form of the top-weighted Ginger Jam who has won its last 3 race and 4 from its last 5 runs BUT all of those races were slow run affairs, with 2 known front runners in this race things might not be in its favour, the 3 year old Packington Lane has led before but again its time wasn't fast. Qaaraat comes out 2nd top-rated if using 2019 times only on a race from Ripon but it hasn't got great trainer/jockey stats, while top-rated on the same times I have Debawtry rated 2lbs higher and then there's the jockeys 5lb allowance but the trainers 0-8 record here is off-putting, Rosina comes out joint top using a time recorded at Ripon in 2018 but it hasn't won in its last 11 attempts which is concerning and the other joint top rated is BILLY DYLAN 20/1 but it does move into clear top spot if you take off the apprentice jockeys 3lb claim and its the one I'm hoping can get to the front and lead all the way and the trainer does have a decent 17% win rate at this course so at the price I have to make it an each-way punt.
Billy Dylan 22/1 3rd
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