Monday, 18 May 2015

6:35 Windsor - Speculative Bet (18th May)

An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 5f 10y. We are poking our stick at an old, fiery friend - Stormflower

John Bridger's two-year-old daughter of Arcano has raced twice and both starts pulled like the proverbial train [train and carriage]. If only this bay filly would settle. I wouldn't even look at this horse as a betting option but she will be a big big price which does give - at least - some hope of making money by protecting our interests. To be honest, I don't think this will be an easy race to win as there are a couple of fair juveniles who are more professional and most probably talented. However, betting isn't always about picking a winner - it's using your knowledge to put some notes in your pocket. 

Stormflower ran well over course and distance on debut although far too keen. Today she returns to dip her toe in the Thames and a plum draw in stall one.

It is difficult to know what tactics will be employed and we will most likely be damned if they sit off the pace. I'm hoping to take huge odds [33/1 with bookmaker - perhaps substantially more on the exchanges - touched 50/1] and bet on her gaining an easy lead, looking every inch a winner, before hitting the wall and sending out a couple of flares in distress. I would take the big odds, lay your stake at half the odds and the rest at big odds on hoping you get a nibble from a few who are captivated by her abundance of pace. It isn't beyond the realms she could win although I think my assess is more likely. I'm quite looking forward to see how this speedy poke goes.     

Stormflower 33/1 5th

Note: those who got exchange priced of 70+ would have laid this in running at half odds. Disappointing it didn't get to the lead. I felt like setting off a couple of flares when it didn't head the field. Annoying.