Friday 16 February 2018

8:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (16th February)

1m (1m5y) Fillies' Novice Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Class 5) (3yo)

Six runners on Standard going. 

Velvet Vision is unlikely to disrupt the major contenders. Mark Tompkin's debutantes can spring a surprise but rarely. 

Hugo Palmer is a top-class trainer for a reason and someone to respect with three-year-olds on their second start. Evince is a daughter of New Approach, a home bred in the ownership of Prince K Abdullah. She ran here on debut but inexperience and insufficient trip caused problems after a slow start. Better should be expect.  

Chloris has shown creditable form, especially last time out when third. 

The familiar silks of Qatar Racing Limited catch the eye for debutante Imperial Act. Interesting to see why the hood is applied for this racecourse bow. It may be a slight negative suggesting a horse that needs calming or lacks focus. The trainer knows best and the betting is the best assessor. This daughter of Frankel was sent to the sales earlier this month but withdrawn. Difficult to know if this is a negative. It does bring concerns. The dam won twice and achieved an official rating of 100. Potentially a smart type but there are questions to answer. If seriously backed it would instill more confidence. 

Another owner who has done well last season was John Dance. He is particularly potent when partnering Karl Burke. For that reason, Lumi is worthy of note. This bay daughter of Canford Cliffs cost 80,000 euros at the yearling sales. She wasn't strongly fancied on debut at Newcastle over 7f but ran well, staying on at the finishing, gaining on the lead. This extra furlong should be ideal and I'd expect a bold show. Looks a decent type to put in an each-way double or single if drifting a touch in the betting.

David Simcock fields Skirrid Hill who looks to be second string to Imperial Act.

Conclusion: An interesting race in ways. By all accounts a four-horse race. I'm interested in Lumi but I really wouldn't bet in this competitive heat with just two places for each-way backers. Fascinating to see how Imperial Act fares in the betting with a few ifs and buts flying around.