LINGFIELD 2.25
EQUALLY FAST has only poor form recently and slow times over this course and distance, it has been known to lead before but I would lay it in this race.
TOMSHALFBROTHER hasn't any course form and now ins from 4 races on the AW tracks and overall a maiden after 9 attempts and that might not change here.
ARZAAK has only slow times recently at this c/d and its form has been quite poor overall and a losing run of 13 and one I would look to lay in this race.
ROUNDABOUT MAGIC won on Tuesday and if turning out again here it has to be on my shortlist although I'm not a fan of the apprentice jockeys 0-4 record for the stable.
PINK ICEBERG I think this one might set the early pace in this race and if allowed to dictate it could do enough to make the frame but it would need to improve to keep them all at bay.
CUBAN SPIRIT hasn't any distance form and looks as though a longer trip would suit it better and I'm not sure this race will run to suit it.
ALASKAN BAY the trainer does well here with its older horses having a 21% win rate and will be staying on strongly at the business end.
STARCHANT is a maiden after 23 runs and I doubt it will change here as it's not even made the frame in 10 AW races.
PHAROH JAKE is on a losing run of 16 and hasn't shown much form lately and age may be catching up with this 12-year-old.
SUMMARY: I think the winner will come from either Roundabout Magic if it runs again this quickly or my top-rated ALASKAN BAY 33/1 who showed a return to form might be imminent finishing 4th on its last run and has to be worth an each-way punt at such a big price.
Alaskan Bay 33/1 4th
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LINGFIELD 3.20
ROYAL DYNASTY may find this distance a bit too far for it.
KNOCKOUT BLOW won last time out but may struggle to stay the trip in this line-up.
BAHAMIAN HEIGHTS been woefully out of form but is a possible frontrunner.
CATHEADANS FURY capable of making the frame but maybe struggle to win this race.
KATHS LUSTRE its best c/d figure from 2018 would see it struggling to win here.
LITTLE MISS LILLY is another in the field that may struggle to stay the trip in this race.
PERFECT SYMPHONY its best Chelmsford time would give it every chance here but its only run over this c/d was a poor effort.
FALCAO is 2nd top-rated on 2019 c/d times and being a frontrunner it could go well in this race.
MERCERS is top-rated on this years and overall speed figures and the apprentice's 7lb claim could swing things even more so into its favour.
TAWAAFOQ hasn't any recent c/d form to work with but its best Chelmsford time would put it in the mix for making the frame.
PORTO FERRO is on a losing run of 17 which isn't ideal and its best time wouldn't be good enough to even make the frame if all the rest run to their form.
MAJOR ASSAULT may need this run for fitness and its sole run here was poor.
SUMMARY: Not a race to be betting in too heavily but I will be having an each-way punt on MERCERS 12/1 who comes out top on my figures and if the apprentice is worth their 7lb claim then that could help it even more but it's not one of my favoured riders hence why the lowish stakes.
Mercers 14/1 5th
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THIRSK 2.50 (7.9)
Just Glamorous is my 2nd top-rated on just 2019 times and one of only 2 known front runners in the race, Alsvinder is the other possible pacesetter and is my 2nd top-rated on a time it recorded at Hamilton in 2018, so both could go well from the front but I do have Henley rated joint top using a 2018 time but he other top-rated horse CANFORD BAY 14/1 did its best time this year so will be carrying my money as an each-way bet.
Canford Bay 14/1 8th
LINGFIELD 6.35 (7.1)
There's a lot of horses that are either 3-year-olds or lightly run animals that could be capable of improvement which automatically reduces my stakes, I will be risking a bet on my top-rated selection *BROCKEY RISE 14/1 as long as it represents some value in the betting but it will be a smallish bet and I am hoping it's going to be an each-way price, which happily it is.
* NR
Note: If betting, keep an eye on the going and the stick reading as given. No bet it the ground turns testing.
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LINGFIELD 1.40
I'm not sure if Culloden will take to this surface as its only ran over this c/d once before and showed very little but a time recorded at Chelmsford would see it make the frame and it is a front runner if it can get a clear run from stall 9 and it could well do with not a lot of known early pace in the race, Nuzha and Molly Jones are others that could get involved in the finish but top on my list is BARNSDALE 25/1 and this one's trainer has a 2-11 record at this course and they have employed a 7lb claiming apprentice to help their cause here but its not a race I will be investing too heavily in as these class 7 runners are never very consistent but at such a big price I cannot let it pass without an each way bet on it.
Barnsdale 33/1 7th
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LINGFIELD 4.20
A race which i think will be won by a front running or prominent positioned horse, Hurricane Alert has a reasonable time from Chelmsford, Billy Boots is my 2nd top rated and a possible pace setter drawn in stall 6, top rated is DREAMS OF GLORY 12/1 who is also a front running type and is in stall 4 and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and at the price i will be going with an each way wager.
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Dream Of Glory 14/1 6th
LINGFIELD 5.05
There's not what I would call a natural front runner in this race but there is 3 that have led before but not won by doing so, I'm thinking that the top weight Jashma may lead as I'm thinking it might be running here to gain fitness so a good blowout from the front would be ideal, if not then maybe Red Tycoon or Evening Starlight may take on the pacemaker role, I would like all 3 of them to set a fast early pace, I've got joint top rated horses here in AGUEROOO 16/1 who has the prime draw in stall 1 and can track the leaders or be held up the other is DUTIFUL SON 15/2 who showed a return to form last time out when being held up for too long before trying to catch the front runners and having to settle for 3rd place, they have changed the jockey to a 3lb claimer who has ridden once before for this stable and it ended in victory so it looks a positive pointer.
Aguerooo 16/1 3rd
Dutiful Son 15/2 6th
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A Maiden Auction Fillies' Stakes (Plus 10) over 7f on good to firm going.
Eleven runners but just one big priced selection to feast our eyes. As we know, these tips can be rather hit and miss but that is the nature of the beautiful beast when you start poking a 20/1 shot with a sharp stick (to make it go faster!).
So which filly do we have our beady eye on here? Joyful Dream may just have an ace up her hoof at big odds. This is a very restricted race type and this chestnut daughter of Dream Ahead is out of a poor mare but I have a sneaky feeling Stan Moore considers this 9,000E breeze-up buy to have a glimmer of ability. Moore is a canny old stick and not the kind of trainer to overrate his juveniles but it is interesting to consider he once had this February foal entered to run at Listed class. Clearly, she isn't to that level unless something quite astounding has happened like someone had put her shoes on back to front! But it does suggest to me that we may not have seen the potential of this little horse. She ran a cracking race on debut at odds of 100/1. I actually tipped her on this website and although finishing eighth was beaten less than three lengths. She was more fancied next start at Chepstow in a race which turned out to be very competitive for the auction class. It is intriguing that Moore sent her to run at Deauville, France last time out when finishing down the field in testing conditions. I can't imagine Moore sending her to glimpse the Eiffel Tower or nibble at frog legs. I think it was a sign, added to the other clues, that he fancies this juvenile can win a small race.
This faster ground should be more suiting and a step up in distance could be in her favour. With ace apprentice Josephine Gordon claiming a valuable three pound and just 8-3 on her back I get the feeling if Joyful Dream is going to hit the frame this could well be her day. At odds of 25/1+ I would give this juvenile each-way claims.
Our man in the know has forwarded a juicy-priced selection today in the shape of Noverre To Go (25/1). This nine-year-old gelding, sired by Noverre, has proven to be a decent horse in his time and once rated 98. Ron Harris' charge is now racing off a handicap mark of 69. He finished 2nd in December and has been runner-up in four of his last nine starts. Ben Curtis takes the ride. Although this chestnut has a wide draw (9) he is usually held up and could run on with purpose. Robert and Nina Bailey's horse has to be worth an each-way wager at odds of 25/1.
Noverre To Go 25/1 Unp